Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics
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The economics of the new world or­der: imbalances, new leaders, digital globalisation
This article presents the author’s perspective on the emergence of a new global economic order, characterising and statistically substantiating its causes, key features, and emerging trends, as well as its medium-term consequences in the form of changing trade flows and reindustrialisation. The influence of digitalisation and artificial intelligence on the creation of multiple poles in the new world, giving rise to digital multiglobalisation, is examined. Future qualitative changes in the global economy are analysed to help national governments and businesses adapt to them.
O. Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
Directions for building China’s modern industrial system and the role of innovative industrial clusters in the development of the national economy
This article assesses the development of China’s modern industrial system from 2020 to 2025 across the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries. The financial performance and financial condition of the country’s industrial enterprises from 2021 to 2025 are analysed. The key areas for building an industrial system are examined in the context of the implementation of the 15th five-year plan for national economic and social development of the People’s Republic of China. The role of innovative industrial clusters in strengthening the foundations of the country’s real economy is determined. An algorithm for assessing and improving the effectiveness of national economic development through the formation of innovative industrial clusters is proposed.
Empirical analysis of regional economic growth factors: the case of China
Using panel data from 31 Chinese administrative regions for the period 2010–2023, we analysed the factors driving regional economic growth. Within a three-level framework including domestic accumulation, spatial transmission, and policy catalysis mechanisms, we applied fixed-effects models to establish that physical and human capital positively influence regional economic growth, labour mobility is the most robust transmission channel, and the initiative «Belt and road» enhances the effects of trade openness. The results are supported by robustness tests and serve as a basis for developing differentiated regional policies.
Current state and problems of digital economy development in the Republic of Belarus
The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of digital development in the Republic of Belarus in terms of key aspects (the infrastructure, the information and communication sector, the digitisation of public administration, the digitisation of business, and cybersecurity). Based on current international rankings, the strengths and weaknesses of the national digital ecosystem and the systemic challenges facing the country on its path to building a digital economy are identified. Particular attention is paid to the problem of the digital divide, human resources, and government regulation measures. Recommendations are formulated to accelerate the digital transformation of the economy.
Factor analysis of productivity of the energy sector of China
A hypothesis has been formulated suggesting that the electric power industry could have developed extensively during China’s period of rapid economic growth. The conditions for extensive economic growth in the electric power industry are outlined, including an increase in the contribution of labour and mineral resources to the cost of electricity and an increase in the ratio of electricity services to gross domestic product. Data from China’s tables «input – output» at current prices for the period from 1981 to 2018 is analysed. The cost structure of the industry «Electricity, gas, and water production and distribution» is assessed. It is assumed that approximately 82 % of the industry’s final output is electricity. The key factor influencing electricity output is shown to be the diagonal of the industry’s direct cost matrix (energy in energy). It has been demonstrated that since 2007, this indicator reflects double-counting in the industry rather than physical electricity losses. Taking this fact into account, the conditions for extensive growth in the electric power industry have been adjusted. The calculations revealed no clear and consistent signs of extensive growth in China’s electric power industry during the study period. China’s electric power industry is characterised primarily by intensive growth, is developing on the basis of innovation, and is not currently considered a factor hindering economic growth.
Q. Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Ec
Comparative analysis of energy efficiency and the speed of energy transition in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation countries
This paper examines energy efficiency, which has a significant positive impact on economic growth due to energy conservation. It is noted that the export of saved energy resources in energy-surplus countries increases gross domestic product by as much as the country would have spent on energy if it had consumed less efficiently, while in energy-deficient countries, energy conservation allows for a reduction in energy imports, which also leads to an increase in gross domestic product. The paper examines the energy efficiency of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation countries, their dynamics of energy efficiency improvements, and the speed of the energy transition.
Improving rural tourism go­ver­nan­ce in China on the basis of efficiency assessment
Facing the issue of high investment, low return in China’s rural tourism, this study employs a measurement – decomposition – diagnosis – governance framework and data envelopment analysis to examine panel data from 40 tourism counties (2011–2022). By decomposing technical efficiency into pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency, it identifies key constraints. Results indicate that average county efficiency remained at 50.3–61.5 % of the production frontier, with growth heavily reliant on scale expansion while managerial (technological) efficiency stagnated. Then counties are categorised into four types (system-optimised, technology-driven, scale-driven, and transformation dilemma) based on pure technical efficiency or scale efficiency performance, with causes linked to resource endowment, government role, and industrial integration. Therefore, a differentiated governance framework is proposed to facilitate a transition from scale-driven to innovation-driven growth. The study provides a refined tool for analysing regional tourism heterogeneity and offers practical policy insights.
Quality of life of China’s population and factors influencing it
Using panel data from 31 Chinese administrative-territorial units for the period 2014–2022, we examine the determinants and spatial correlations of quality of life. A comprehensive quality of life index was compiled, and the influence of key factors on it was empirically assessed using the Durbin spatial model. It is shown that quality of life across China exhibits significant positive spatial autocorrelation. Investment in innovation, the development of digital inclusive finance, and mobile internet penetration not only have a significant beneficial impact on quality of life at the local level but also generate positive interregional effects. Conversely, an increase in the share of budget expenditures and the development of electronic commerce are negatively associated with quality of life, reflecting potential institutional and structural constraints at certain stages of country’s development. This study deepens the empirical understanding of the mechanisms underlying the spatial formation of quality of life, and presents policy-relevant ideas for developing differentiated strategies for regional socio-economic development in China.
An estimation of the potential effect of integration of the Eurasian Economic Union
The potential integration effects of the Eurasian Economic Union for Belarus and Russia are assessed. It is noted that participation in this union creates the potential for further trade integration within a Single Economic Space. A gravity model is estimated for the case of «perfect» integration, and the flows of exports. The European Union is considered the «perfect» integration model in terms of the absence of barriers. The least squares and Poisson’s methods are used to estimate the effects. It is concluded that a long-term increase in trade flow from Russia to Belarus will lead to a 2 % increase in trade, while a long-term increase in trade flow from Belarus to Russia will lead to a 26 % increase in trade.
Information and communication services as an element of the high-tech sector of Belarus: current state in the context of global trends
This article examines the current state of the information and communication services sector in Belarus in the context of global trends. Statistical indicators and the country’s position in international rankings of the digital economy and artificial intelligence are analysed. Using comparative and structural analysis, the strengths and weaknesses of the national digital transformation model are identified, as well as barriers limiting innovative dynamics.
Improving state support instruments for foreign trade in services in the Republic of Belarus
The need to transform the institutional system supporting services exports, as well as the instruments supporting foreign trade in services in the Republic of Belarus, is highlighted. The important role of foreign trade in services is demonstrated. The institutions that support business entities exporting services are examined. The introduction of new institutional units (an export-import bank and digital attachés) is proposed. Instruments supporting service exports are systematised. Additional tools for implementing financial and non-financial initiatives to support service exports are developed.
Analysis of methods for determining the total costs of imports for exports using tables «input – output»
The article analyses the existing methods for determining the full cost of imports for exports, provides a comparative analysis of these methods, and identifies their main advantages and disadvantages. Based on the tables «input – output» of Sweden and Germany for 2018, the article calculates the full cost of imports for exports using the three methods discussed and examines the differences in the resulting values.
Engineering economic evaluation method and decision support tool for digital technology selection in the food industry (a case study of Yili group)
This paper aims to construct an integrated engineering economic evaluation framework to address the complexity, uncertainty, and multi-objective nature of digital technology selection in the food industry. Taking Yili group, a Chinese dairy giant, as a case study, this research innovatively proposes a hybrid evaluation model combining fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution. The research in this paper does not only provide methodological support for the technological decisions of food enterprises but also offers theoretical reference for engineering economic evaluation in related fields.
Strategies for the development of logistics of cross-border electronic commerce: China’s experience
This article examines China’s strategy for developing cross-border electronic commerce and related logistics based on an analysis of its phenomenal growth from 2020 to 2025. It identifies and describes the goals and tools for implementing this strategy, as well as the potential for applying its individual elements in the EAEU and Belarus. A consensus forecasting methodology for the development of international electronic commerce and related logistics is proposed. Based on this methodology, a forecast for the growth of cross-border electronic commerce volumes up to 2030 has been compiled, both globally and in China.
logistics of cross-border electronic commerce
A retrospective analysis of the results of the six Belarusian five-year plans and the tasks for the seventh five-year plan
This article continues the authors’ series on the evolution of the Belarusian economic model and reveals the challenges facing the country’s economy during the seventh five-year plan. A retrospective statistical analysis of the results of each of the six five-year plans allowed us to identify the challenges facing the Belarusian economy and, based on these, formulate priorities for 2026 –2030, which can be used in developing economic policy.
Spatial-temporal analysis of the relationship between interprovincial migration and economic development in China: data from a bivariative autocorrelation study (2000 –2024)
Although interregional migration is a key factor in the development of China’s regional economies, existing studies often neglect its dynamic spatial dependence. This study quantitatively assesses the spatiotemporal relationship between interregional migration and economic development in 31 provinces of China from 2000 to 2024. By using bivariate spatial autoregressive analysis (global Moran’s I and local spatial autocorrelation index (LISA)) on provincial-level data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the impact of migration on GRP growth patterns is characterised. The results of the analysis allow us to identify three stages of regional agglomeration evolution: 1) the initial stage of extreme concentration of economic activity and migration flows in the eastern coastal regions (2000 –2009); 2) the phase of their partial rebalancing towards the western provinces (2010 –2019); 3) the final stage of policy-induced multipolar redistribution (2020 –2024). Different spatial regimes are also found, characterised by negative autocorrelation during the period of decentralisation (2005 –2014) and the emergence of clusters in new agglomeration hubs (2015 –2019).
Digital platform of light industry Bee-online.ru as a promising channel for promoting products of Belarusian manufacturers to the market of the EAEU countries
The article presents the results of a study assessing the promotion of Belarusian manufacturers’ products through the Eurasian digital platform for the light industry Bee-online.ru. The article assesses the fulfillment of the Bee-online.ru digital platform’s plan for 2023 –2024 and the level of representation of Belarusian light industry enterprises on the platform as of the 3rd quarter of 2025. The article identifies the main problems that reduce the interest of foreign customers in placing orders with Belarusian light industry manufacturers. The article defines the advantages of the digital platform for both manufacturers and customers, and highlights the shortcomings of the platform’s functionality. The correctness of the online presence of Belarusian manufacturers on the platform Bee-online.ru is assessed through the analysis of their accounts and personal accounts; recommendations are provided.
Theoretical and methodological study of the problems of observation the state of the national economic system and analysis of the national economic system
This article explores the challenges of systems research in complex, nonlinear, dynamic systems undergoing various transformations (natural evolution, bifurcations, crises, and various external influences) – the problems of observation and analysing the national economic system. Contemporary economic literature has extensively explored the structure, analysis, and management of national economic systems. However, assessing the functioning of the national economy as it moves remains insufficiently addressed. This article draws on the work of contemporary scholars in management theory and the theoretical foundations of systems research. The application of these works, through the lens of modern economic theory, has enabled us to substantiate and develop the stages of a structural and logical representation of the challenges of observation of the state of the national economic system and analysing the national economic system as a dynamic, multi-connected, multi-parameter structure. The developed algorithm allows us to take into account the main difficulties of observation the state of nonlinear, dynamic, multi-connected, multi-parameter systems and analysing the national economic system in the context of constructing econometric models for managing macroeconomic processes, including three control loops (the primary control loop, the disturbance-management loop, and the self-adjustment loop).
observation of the state of the national economic system and analysis of the national economic system
The integration management of science and industry: essence, backgrounds and main trends
The integration of science and industry is crucial for fostering an innovation-driven economy, accelerating technological advancements, and ensuring sustainable growth. Understanding of the factors influencing this integration is essential for strategic decision-making. This study analyses panel data from 31 Chinese provinces in 2011– 2022. We employ the entropy-weighted model and the coupling coordination model to comprehensively assess the level of science – industry integration in China. Additionally, a two-way fixed-effects panel quantile model examines the impact of inward and outward foreign direct investment, public transportation infrastructure, healthcare service capacity, and urbanisation rates on integration. The findings indicate a measurable increase in science – industry coordination in China, particularly in the eastern regions, where policy support and investment have driven advancements in technology transfer and innovation capacity. Foreign direct investment and public transportation expansion significantly enhance integration, while urbanisation’s influence varies, showing stronger effects in highly industrialised areas. Additionally, outward foreign investment becomes a key driver at later development stages, highlighting the role of international collaboration. These insights provide valuable guidance for developing strategies to strengthen science-industry interactions, not only in China but also in other countries aiming for innovation-driven growth. The research underscores the need for targeted government policies, strategic international investments, and infrastructure expansion to foster deeper science – industry integration, ultimately driving technological progress and economic competitiveness.
Copyright (c) 2025 Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
Application of multiparametric machine learning methods for selection of significant quantitative characteristics of enterprises in the regions of the Russian Federation in the analysis of subsidisation
In this paper, we present an original method for searching a connection between financial-economic characteristics and the subsidisation of the regions of the Russian Federation. The dataset contained data on enterprises and organisations, as well as indicators related to fixed assets, as the most significant in terms of the regions’ needs for subsidies. Two groups of regions were identified: regions with high subsidies and regions without them. Machine learning methods were used to establish differences in the reporting data of enterprises and organisations, as well as fixed assets, in the identified groups. In 2020, the most important indicators by which the groups differed from each other were the number and turnover of organisations, the balanced financial result (difference of profit and loss), the share of unprofitable organisations, accounts payable and receivable of organisations, overdue wage arrears per employee, the number of small enterprises per 10 000 people, etc. This approach (classification using optimally reliable partitioning and statistically weighted syndromes) is just beginning to be used in this area. The found dependences will allow us to more accurately outline the pattern («portrait») of each region of the Russian Federation with the possibility of further forecasting its subsidised status. A set of significant characteristics will improve the accuracy of the forecast and propose a plan for moving from the subsidised group to the group of self-sufficient subjects of the Russian Federation.
Modern hybrid structures in the countries with X-type institutional matrix
It is noted that the peculiarity of the Belarusian institutional system of X-type is its orientation to the planned-distributive type of economic relations and administrative methods of state management. It is pointed out that the task of consolidation of agents from different institutional sectors is relevant. The theoretical foundations of the coordination process are considered which make it possible to justify the formation of hybrid forms of organisation of subject relations adequate to the national economy. Emphasis is placed on the role of digital media as a guarantor of successful integration interaction in moving towards a common goal, as well as the position of the state as a key coordinator and strategist of effective socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus.
Modelling the impact of digitalisation on economic growth
Econometric models are used to study the impact on the country’s economic growth of such factors as the monetary system and the level of digitalisation. Within the first econometric model were built the forecast of growth GDP per capita until 2050 at the exchange rate in constant 2015 US dollars. As indicators reflecting the quality of the monetary system were used gross capital formation, money supply growth rate, and the share of total reserves in gross external debt. The second econometric model considers the number of Internet users and mobile subscribers, information technology exports, and the innovation index in the World Intellectual Property Organisation rating as factors influencing the level of digitalisation. The results of the study show that the country’s welfare is growing due to the acceleration of everyday tasks using the Internet and mobile communications, simplification of work processes, and increased labour productivity.
share of total reserves in gross external debt
Formation of a marketing metrics system based on the CASCA2DE model
The use of a systems approach in the company’s marketing activities requires the introduction of quantitative assessments, which is due to the increasing flows of information. It is advisable to build marketing metrics systems after the completion of an information audit. The development of a marketing metrics system based on the CASCA2DE model takes into account the tasks of various customers and users, resource provision and storage formats of data.
M. Business Administration • Business Economics • Marketing • Accounting • Perso
The scenario of the development of the Union State of Russia and Belarus in the framework of cooperation in integration associations
The current economic situation of the member countries of the Union State is considered. The necessity of this union for Russia and Belarus, as well as the importance of further development of the association are substantiated. The economy of Belarus is largely linked to the economy of Russia, which occupies a leading position in various segments in the Union State and is more financially and economically developed. To analyse and illustrate the current situation, the ranking of countries by the rating of the speed of economic development, the index of innovative development and the index of information and communication technology development, one-factor analysis of variance (ANOVA) for the two states are used. The main risks of interaction in integration associations (inflation, sanctions, personnel, logistics and currency) are identified, as well as their effect on the economy of both countries. Within the framework of the studied indicators, the dynamics of GDP and foreign trade turnover of Belarus, volumes of mutual trade and mutual investments between Russia and Belarus are predicted. Different approaches and algorithms are used for modelling and constructing forecast values: regressions of various functional forms, the ARIMA (ARIMAX) model, exponential smoothing and the Prophet model. The analysis reflects the potential positive effects of the Union State’s participation in integration associations and cooperation with new partners. It is concluded that Belarus and Russia need to continue building common payment systems, exchanging innovations to build up production and economic potential, and technological development.
Economic integration of Russia and Belarus: prospects for growth and exchange of innovations
The article examines the prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and Belarus within the framework of the EAEU, SCO and BRICS integration associations, with an emphasis on the impact of sanctions and their consequences for the economic growth of the countries. The study includes the use of econometric modelling methods to evaluate the forecast of key economic characteristics, such as the GDP of Belarus and the volume of mutual trade, as well as indicators of investment flows and innovative interaction. The autoregressive integrated moving average model with external input data (ARIMAX) was used, as well as the gravity model of foreign trade, which allowed taking into account time trends and external factors influencing forecasts. The exponential smoothing methodology was also used. The results show positive trends in the Belarusian economy with a slight decline in 2022, and a projected increase in mutual trade and the exchange of innovations. Forecasts of mutual investments, on the contrary, indicate a decline in the long term. Further strengthening of economic integration and improvement of the countries’ political and financial positions in the international arena are expected.
The Union State: analysing the effectiveness of integration of Russia and Belarus
The links between the economies of Russia and Belarus within the framework of the Union State are investigated. The mutual influence of their GDP, trade flows and investments is considered. The results show a deep connection between the countries, participating in the union. Particular attention is paid to the impact of import operations and investment activities on GDP, as well as the ability of the economies to withstand external shocks. The novelty of the study is the development of original econometric models, demonstrating the sustainability of integration processes to global crises and sanctions pressure.
The peculiarities of the financial integration development of the Central America and the Caribbean countries at the present stage
The article is devoted to the analysis of integration processes within the Central American Integration System (SICA) and the Caribbean Community with a special focus on the specifics of financial integration at the current stage of development. The paper aims to empirically test the hypothesis that despite the ongoing process of financial integration formation between 2013 and 2024, the harmonisation of the banking sector, investment vehicles and the stock market stimulates the growth of mutual trade between Caribbean Community and SICA countries. The econometric analysis reveals that most factors drive exports between Caribbean Community and SICA countries. It is noted that GDP per capita growth has a negative impact: a 1 per cent increase in this indicator entails a 1.495 per cent decrease in exports. This trend is explained by the fact that in periods of economic hardship, the countries of the region increase mutual trade, while in more stable times they focus on external partners, particularly the United States. The results of this paper may be of interest to research centres, companies and international organisations specialising in the study of integration processes in Caribbean Community, SICA and other groupings.
Optimisation models for choosing the location of logistics centres in electronic commerce
Original mathematical models are presented for logistics of a new class of problems – electronic commerce. The proposed optimisation models for choosing the location of logistics centres and parcel terminals in electronic delivery networks are developed on the basis of classical graph problems about k centres and k medians.
C. Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
Methodological concepts of socio-economic systems study
The article explores several methodological concepts with the aim of establishing a comprehensive epistemological foundation for the study of socio-economic systems: historical, evolutionary, formational, dialectical, systemic, tectological, cybernetic, teleological, and synergetic approaches. The basic methodological principles within each approach are identified, and the scope of their application to the understanding of socio-economic systems is defined. Based on the proposed methodological framework, principles for researching socio-economic systems are formulated. The use of this set of methodological concepts to understand the essence, properties, and qualities of socio-economic systems will significantly expand the researcher’s capabilities, enabling a comprehensive and multifaceted analysis of their objective patterns of functioning and development, while overcoming the limitations of any single methodological approach.
B. History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches
Health capital accumulation and effective utilisation: a theoretical framework based on an extended Cobb – Douglas production function
Against the backdrop of the initiative «Healthy China» and the transformation of the demographic dividend, health capital has emerged as a critical determinant of national competitiveness and the long-term sustainability of economic development. Based on data from the China Statistical Yearbook, the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China, and United Nations World Population Prospects, this article analyses current trends in the formation of China’s health capital and the structural challenges associated with this process. Building on an extended Cobb – Douglas production function, we propose a theoretical framework that integrates health capital into macroeconomic output analysis and introduce a comprehensive multidimensional health human capital index (HHCI) encompassing four key dimensions. Furthermore, we present an integrated policy framework grounded in a life-course approach to health capital and multi-stakeholder engagement, offering practical strategies to promote its accumulation and improve its utilisation efficiency. The findings provide a solid theoretical and methodological basis for fostering high-quality, sustainable economic growth amid China’s ongoing demographic and institutional transformations.