Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics
The authors who are published in this journal agree to the following: The authors retain copyright on the work and provide the journal with the right of first publication of the work on condition of license Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial. 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0). The authors retain the right to enter into certain contractual agreements relating to the non-exclusive distribution of the published version of the work (e.g. post it on the institutional repository, publication in the book), with the reference to its original publication in this journal. The authors have the right to post their work on the Internet (e.g. on the institutional store or personal website) prior to and during the review process, conducted by the journal, as this may lead to a productive discussion and a large number of references to this work. (See The Effect of Open Access.)
Analysis of methods for determining the total costs of imports for exports using tables «input – output»
The article analyses the existing methods for determining the full cost of imports for exports, provides a comparative analysis of these methods, and identifies their main advantages and disadvantages. Based on the tables «input – output» of Sweden and Germany for 2018, the article calculates the full cost of imports for exports using the three methods discussed and examines the differences in the resulting values.
Copyright (c) 2026 Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
Strategies for the development of logistics of cross-border electronic commerce: China’s experience
This article examines China’s strategy for developing cross-border electronic commerce and related logistics based on an analysis of its phenomenal growth from 2020 to 2025. It identifies and describes the goals and tools for implementing this strategy, as well as the potential for applying its individual elements in the EAEU and Belarus. A consensus forecasting methodology for the development of international electronic commerce and related logistics is proposed. Based on this methodology, a forecast for the growth of cross-border electronic commerce volumes up to 2030 has been compiled, both globally and in China.
O. Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
logistics of cross-border electronic commerce
A retrospective analysis of the results of the six Belarusian five-year plans and the tasks for the seventh five-year plan
This article continues the authors’ series on the evolution of the Belarusian economic model and reveals the challenges facing the country’s economy during the seventh five-year plan. A retrospective statistical analysis of the results of each of the six five-year plans allowed us to identify the challenges facing the Belarusian economy and, based on these, formulate priorities for 2026 –2030, which can be used in developing economic policy.
Spatial-temporal analysis of the relationship between interprovincial migration and economic development in China: data from a bivariative autocorrelation study (2000 –2024)
Although interregional migration is a key factor in the development of China’s regional economies, existing studies often neglect its dynamic spatial dependence. This study quantitatively assesses the spatiotemporal relationship between interregional migration and economic development in 31 provinces of China from 2000 to 2024. By using bivariate spatial autoregressive analysis (global Moran’s I and local spatial autocorrelation index (LISA)) on provincial-level data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the impact of migration on GRP growth patterns is characterised. The results of the analysis allow us to identify three stages of regional agglomeration evolution: 1) the initial stage of extreme concentration of economic activity and migration flows in the eastern coastal regions (2000 –2009); 2) the phase of their partial rebalancing towards the western provinces (2010 –2019); 3) the final stage of policy-induced multipolar redistribution (2020 –2024). Different spatial regimes are also found, characterised by negative autocorrelation during the period of decentralisation (2005 –2014) and the emergence of clusters in new agglomeration hubs (2015 –2019).
Digital platform of light industry Bee-online.ru as a promising channel for promoting products of Belarusian manufacturers to the market of the EAEU countries
The article presents the results of a study assessing the promotion of Belarusian manufacturers’ products through the Eurasian digital platform for the light industry Bee-online.ru. The article assesses the fulfillment of the Bee-online.ru digital platform’s plan for 2023 –2024 and the level of representation of Belarusian light industry enterprises on the platform as of the 3rd quarter of 2025. The article identifies the main problems that reduce the interest of foreign customers in placing orders with Belarusian light industry manufacturers. The article defines the advantages of the digital platform for both manufacturers and customers, and highlights the shortcomings of the platform’s functionality. The correctness of the online presence of Belarusian manufacturers on the platform Bee-online.ru is assessed through the analysis of their accounts and personal accounts; recommendations are provided.
Theoretical and methodological study of the problems of observation the state of the national economic system and analysis of the national economic system
This article explores the challenges of systems research in complex, nonlinear, dynamic systems undergoing various transformations (natural evolution, bifurcations, crises, and various external influences) – the problems of observation and analysing the national economic system. Contemporary economic literature has extensively explored the structure, analysis, and management of national economic systems. However, assessing the functioning of the national economy as it moves remains insufficiently addressed. This article draws on the work of contemporary scholars in management theory and the theoretical foundations of systems research. The application of these works, through the lens of modern economic theory, has enabled us to substantiate and develop the stages of a structural and logical representation of the challenges of observation of the state of the national economic system and analysing the national economic system as a dynamic, multi-connected, multi-parameter structure. The developed algorithm allows us to take into account the main difficulties of observation the state of nonlinear, dynamic, multi-connected, multi-parameter systems and analysing the national economic system in the context of constructing econometric models for managing macroeconomic processes, including three control loops (the primary control loop, the disturbance-management loop, and the self-adjustment loop).
observation of the state of the national economic system and analysis of the national economic system
The integration management of science and industry: essence, backgrounds and main trends
The integration of science and industry is crucial for fostering an innovation-driven economy, accelerating technological advancements, and ensuring sustainable growth. Understanding of the factors influencing this integration is essential for strategic decision-making. This study analyses panel data from 31 Chinese provinces in 2011– 2022. We employ the entropy-weighted model and the coupling coordination model to comprehensively assess the level of science – industry integration in China. Additionally, a two-way fixed-effects panel quantile model examines the impact of inward and outward foreign direct investment, public transportation infrastructure, healthcare service capacity, and urbanisation rates on integration. The findings indicate a measurable increase in science – industry coordination in China, particularly in the eastern regions, where policy support and investment have driven advancements in technology transfer and innovation capacity. Foreign direct investment and public transportation expansion significantly enhance integration, while urbanisation’s influence varies, showing stronger effects in highly industrialised areas. Additionally, outward foreign investment becomes a key driver at later development stages, highlighting the role of international collaboration. These insights provide valuable guidance for developing strategies to strengthen science-industry interactions, not only in China but also in other countries aiming for innovation-driven growth. The research underscores the need for targeted government policies, strategic international investments, and infrastructure expansion to foster deeper science – industry integration, ultimately driving technological progress and economic competitiveness.
Copyright (c) 2025 Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0
Application of multiparametric machine learning methods for selection of significant quantitative characteristics of enterprises in the regions of the Russian Federation in the analysis of subsidisation
In this paper, we present an original method for searching a connection between financial-economic characteristics and the subsidisation of the regions of the Russian Federation. The dataset contained data on enterprises and organisations, as well as indicators related to fixed assets, as the most significant in terms of the regions’ needs for subsidies. Two groups of regions were identified: regions with high subsidies and regions without them. Machine learning methods were used to establish differences in the reporting data of enterprises and organisations, as well as fixed assets, in the identified groups. In 2020, the most important indicators by which the groups differed from each other were the number and turnover of organisations, the balanced financial result (difference of profit and loss), the share of unprofitable organisations, accounts payable and receivable of organisations, overdue wage arrears per employee, the number of small enterprises per 10 000 people, etc. This approach (classification using optimally reliable partitioning and statistically weighted syndromes) is just beginning to be used in this area. The found dependences will allow us to more accurately outline the pattern («portrait») of each region of the Russian Federation with the possibility of further forecasting its subsidised status. A set of significant characteristics will improve the accuracy of the forecast and propose a plan for moving from the subsidised group to the group of self-sufficient subjects of the Russian Federation.
Modern hybrid structures in the countries with X-type institutional matrix
It is noted that the peculiarity of the Belarusian institutional system of X-type is its orientation to the planned-distributive type of economic relations and administrative methods of state management. It is pointed out that the task of consolidation of agents from different institutional sectors is relevant. The theoretical foundations of the coordination process are considered which make it possible to justify the formation of hybrid forms of organisation of subject relations adequate to the national economy. Emphasis is placed on the role of digital media as a guarantor of successful integration interaction in moving towards a common goal, as well as the position of the state as a key coordinator and strategist of effective socio-economic development of the Republic of Belarus.
Modelling the impact of digitalisation on economic growth
Econometric models are used to study the impact on the country’s economic growth of such factors as the monetary system and the level of digitalisation. Within the first econometric model were built the forecast of growth GDP per capita until 2050 at the exchange rate in constant 2015 US dollars. As indicators reflecting the quality of the monetary system were used gross capital formation, money supply growth rate, and the share of total reserves in gross external debt. The second econometric model considers the number of Internet users and mobile subscribers, information technology exports, and the innovation index in the World Intellectual Property Organisation rating as factors influencing the level of digitalisation. The results of the study show that the country’s welfare is growing due to the acceleration of everyday tasks using the Internet and mobile communications, simplification of work processes, and increased labour productivity.
share of total reserves in gross external debt
Formation of a marketing metrics system based on the CASCA2DE model
The use of a systems approach in the company’s marketing activities requires the introduction of quantitative assessments, which is due to the increasing flows of information. It is advisable to build marketing metrics systems after the completion of an information audit. The development of a marketing metrics system based on the CASCA2DE model takes into account the tasks of various customers and users, resource provision and storage formats of data.
M. Business Administration • Business Economics • Marketing • Accounting • Perso
The scenario of the development of the Union State of Russia and Belarus in the framework of cooperation in integration associations
The current economic situation of the member countries of the Union State is considered. The necessity of this union for Russia and Belarus, as well as the importance of further development of the association are substantiated. The economy of Belarus is largely linked to the economy of Russia, which occupies a leading position in various segments in the Union State and is more financially and economically developed. To analyse and illustrate the current situation, the ranking of countries by the rating of the speed of economic development, the index of innovative development and the index of information and communication technology development, one-factor analysis of variance (ANOVA) for the two states are used. The main risks of interaction in integration associations (inflation, sanctions, personnel, logistics and currency) are identified, as well as their effect on the economy of both countries. Within the framework of the studied indicators, the dynamics of GDP and foreign trade turnover of Belarus, volumes of mutual trade and mutual investments between Russia and Belarus are predicted. Different approaches and algorithms are used for modelling and constructing forecast values: regressions of various functional forms, the ARIMA (ARIMAX) model, exponential smoothing and the Prophet model. The analysis reflects the potential positive effects of the Union State’s participation in integration associations and cooperation with new partners. It is concluded that Belarus and Russia need to continue building common payment systems, exchanging innovations to build up production and economic potential, and technological development.
Economic integration of Russia and Belarus: prospects for growth and exchange of innovations
The article examines the prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and Belarus within the framework of the EAEU, SCO and BRICS integration associations, with an emphasis on the impact of sanctions and their consequences for the economic growth of the countries. The study includes the use of econometric modelling methods to evaluate the forecast of key economic characteristics, such as the GDP of Belarus and the volume of mutual trade, as well as indicators of investment flows and innovative interaction. The autoregressive integrated moving average model with external input data (ARIMAX) was used, as well as the gravity model of foreign trade, which allowed taking into account time trends and external factors influencing forecasts. The exponential smoothing methodology was also used. The results show positive trends in the Belarusian economy with a slight decline in 2022, and a projected increase in mutual trade and the exchange of innovations. Forecasts of mutual investments, on the contrary, indicate a decline in the long term. Further strengthening of economic integration and improvement of the countries’ political and financial positions in the international arena are expected.
The Union State: analysing the effectiveness of integration of Russia and Belarus
The links between the economies of Russia and Belarus within the framework of the Union State are investigated. The mutual influence of their GDP, trade flows and investments is considered. The results show a deep connection between the countries, participating in the union. Particular attention is paid to the impact of import operations and investment activities on GDP, as well as the ability of the economies to withstand external shocks. The novelty of the study is the development of original econometric models, demonstrating the sustainability of integration processes to global crises and sanctions pressure.
The peculiarities of the financial integration development of the Central America and the Caribbean countries at the present stage
The article is devoted to the analysis of integration processes within the Central American Integration System (SICA) and the Caribbean Community with a special focus on the specifics of financial integration at the current stage of development. The paper aims to empirically test the hypothesis that despite the ongoing process of financial integration formation between 2013 and 2024, the harmonisation of the banking sector, investment vehicles and the stock market stimulates the growth of mutual trade between Caribbean Community and SICA countries. The econometric analysis reveals that most factors drive exports between Caribbean Community and SICA countries. It is noted that GDP per capita growth has a negative impact: a 1 per cent increase in this indicator entails a 1.495 per cent decrease in exports. This trend is explained by the fact that in periods of economic hardship, the countries of the region increase mutual trade, while in more stable times they focus on external partners, particularly the United States. The results of this paper may be of interest to research centres, companies and international organisations specialising in the study of integration processes in Caribbean Community, SICA and other groupings.
Optimisation models for choosing the location of logistics centres in electronic commerce
Original mathematical models are presented for logistics of a new class of problems – electronic commerce. The proposed optimisation models for choosing the location of logistics centres and parcel terminals in electronic delivery networks are developed on the basis of classical graph problems about k centres and k medians.
C. Mathematical and Quantitative Methods
Methodological concepts of socio-economic systems study
The article explores several methodological concepts with the aim of establishing a comprehensive epistemological foundation for the study of socio-economic systems: historical, evolutionary, formational, dialectical, systemic, tectological, cybernetic, teleological, and synergetic approaches. The basic methodological principles within each approach are identified, and the scope of their application to the understanding of socio-economic systems is defined. Based on the proposed methodological framework, principles for researching socio-economic systems are formulated. The use of this set of methodological concepts to understand the essence, properties, and qualities of socio-economic systems will significantly expand the researcher’s capabilities, enabling a comprehensive and multifaceted analysis of their objective patterns of functioning and development, while overcoming the limitations of any single methodological approach.
B. History of Economic Thought, Methodology, and Heterodox Approaches
Health capital accumulation and effective utilisation: a theoretical framework based on an extended Cobb – Douglas production function
Against the backdrop of the initiative «Healthy China» and the transformation of the demographic dividend, health capital has emerged as a critical determinant of national competitiveness and the long-term sustainability of economic development. Based on data from the China Statistical Yearbook, the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China, and United Nations World Population Prospects, this article analyses current trends in the formation of China’s health capital and the structural challenges associated with this process. Building on an extended Cobb – Douglas production function, we propose a theoretical framework that integrates health capital into macroeconomic output analysis and introduce a comprehensive multidimensional health human capital index (HHCI) encompassing four key dimensions. Furthermore, we present an integrated policy framework grounded in a life-course approach to health capital and multi-stakeholder engagement, offering practical strategies to promote its accumulation and improve its utilisation efficiency. The findings provide a solid theoretical and methodological basis for fostering high-quality, sustainable economic growth amid China’s ongoing demographic and institutional transformations.
Analysis of consumer choice features in the digital environment
The article studies the behaviour of consumers of an online store selling durable goods in order to stimulate sales of premium products. The key objective is to build a predictive model that allows for a highly accurate assessment of the likelihood of making the next premium purchase based on big data analytics. The study uses multivariate data analysis methods, in particular, factor analysis (to identify latent patterns of product perception) and cluster analysis (to group users based on information-behavioural strategies). It is established that information involvement (the depth of interaction with reviews and filtering) greatly increases the likelihood of making a premium purchase. The model results make it possible to implement personalised content display, segment the audience for email and push notifications, and take into account regional characteristics and macroeconomic conditions that influence consumer preferences. The hypothesis about the significance of the influence of cognitive factors in making consumer choices in the digital environment is confirmed.
High-tech services as an element of innovative economy development: identification features and defining characteristics
The article analyses the high-tech sector of the economy and studies and classifies high-tech services as components of this sector. The article focuses on the issue of identifying high-tech and knowledge-intensive services. The main characteristics of high-tech services are presented, and their definition is provided. The article discusses the challenges of defining and statistically accounting for high-tech services in the Republic of Belarus and emphasises the need for further development of the theoretical and methodological framework for this sector.
Risks of digital transformation of the labour market of Belarus
The changes in the labour market due to digital transformation are summarised. Potential risks for the labour market that may accompany the process of digitalisation are presented. Empirical data reflecting what risks are relevant for the labour market of Belarus at this stage of socio-economic development are presented.
Transregional digital biglobalisation: methodology, theory, Eurasian practice
The article examines the main trends of the 21st century (biglobalisation, digitalisation and transregionalisation) and their impact on the EAEU and the Republic of Belarus. A detailed review of the literature is provided and problems for further scientiﬁc research are analysed. Factors contributing to biglobalisation are identiﬁed, diﬀerent stages of globalisation are distinguished based on export quotas, the impact of digitalisation on transregionalisation is analysed, and a mo del measuring the signiﬁcance of transregional associations is presented. Nine priorities for transregionalisation of the EAEU are proposed with a focus on new opportunities for the Republic of Belarus.
Copyright (c) 2024 Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics
Explainable artificial intelligence in human resource analytics: analysis of performance factors
In the context of digitalisation and the growing importance of human capital, explainable artificial intelligence models in human resource analytics are particularly relevant. Using the XGBoost gradient model, the impact of transversal skills and digital competencies on key employee performance indicators is analysed. The SHAP method, which ensures forecast transparency, is used to interpret the contribution of features. A methodology is developed for the stages of open data selection, feature generation, and model interpretation. It is established that factors such as communication skills, digital literacy, and tenure have a significant impact on performance. The managerial consequences of using explainable artificial intelligence to support human resource development decisions are discussed. The importance of interpretable models for increasing trust in algorithms in human resource analytics is emphasised.
Methodology for assessing negative external effects in the ecological field
The methodological basis for the regulation of negative external effects in the ecological field as a component of sustainable development of the economic system is studied. Approaches to the assessment of the environmental component of sustainable development and methods of assessing environmental and economic damage are generalised. The methodology of calculation of damage from environmental pollution by the source which is a producer of products and the model for selecting the optimal technology and output volume are proposed.
World agricultural products market and the positions of China, Belarus and Russia in it
The positions of China, Belarus and Russia in the world market of agricultural products are analysed in comparison with the positions of the leaders of foreign trade of agricultural products (the EU countries, USA and Brazil). The change in the competitive positions of the states is tracked using the author’s proposed model for analysing export-import operations of the countries in the world market. The article reveals the rapid growth of international competitive positions of the agrocultural sectors of China, Belarus and Russia, and identifies the reasons for this growth. The priority directions of development of their mutual foreign trade in agricultural products are outlined.
Q. Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Ec
indicators of international competitiveness
Exploring the impact of green investment on quality of life: comparative study of China and Belarus from the perspective of economic growth
The impact of green investment on quality of life from the perspective of economic growth is investigated. Panel data and fixed effects models for 30 provinces in China as well as 6 regions and the capital city of Belarus for the period from 2010 to 2020 are used to study this process. The results show that holding other conditions constant, a 1.0 % increase in green investment can accelerate economic growth by 0.22 %. A comparative analysis of the impact of green investment on economic growth in China and Belarus is carried out. Significant differences in their impact are identified. It is argued that the economic benefits of green investment in Belarus are about three times higher than in China. These findings remain valid if the endogeneity problem is taken into account and a series of robustness checks are conducted. Appropriate economic policy measures are proposed to improve the quality of life and increase the economic benefits of green investment.
Innovation territories as a phenomenon of the world economics
In order to qualitatively improve the analyses of factors affecting the effective development of the economics a theoretical basis is formed to determine the essence of innovation territories and their place in the world economic science. The approaches to understanding the key categories in the field of innovation research are reviewed. The prerequisites for the formation of the term «innovation territory» are revealed. The article describes the main characteristics of this phenomenon: space, boundaries, economic agents, commercial effect and activities of regulatory subjects. The classification of existing innovation territories is proposed.
Contribution of outstanding political figures to the economic history of the Belarusian lands
The economic history of the Belarusian lands associated with the reign of prominent political figures is studied. Their main achievements are considered. Using a consensus approach (aggregation of different opinions and assessments) the key parameters of economic development (GDP per capita in current US dollars, life expectancy and population size) of the Belarusian territories in different periods are identified.
Transformation of the content of the concept of «employment» in modern economic and information conditions
The article reflects the necessity of transforming the content of the concept of «employment» due to significant changes in economic conditions and the inconsistency of the classical concept of this term with the current stage of socio-economic development of the labour market. The approaches of various researchers to the definition of employment are studied, its main forms are established, key non-standard variants employment and the changes that have occurred in the field of labour organisation in the last decade are revealed. The interpretation of the concept of «employment» formulated taking into account modern economic and information conditions and implying any options of communication and forms of labour organisation not prohibited by law is proposed.
Main approaches to determination barriers to women’s entrepreneurship development in the world economics
The aspects of study of women’s entrepreneurship in the context of world economics development are presented. Special attention is paid to the difficulties faced by women entrepreneurs identified by economists from different countries of the world. The gender gap is substantiated in terms of barriers to women’s entrepreneurship development and problems that arise from this which negatively affects the dynamics of economic growth. The necessity of distinguishing the concepts of «barrier» and «problem» in order to reveal the content of women’s participation in business is shown. A classification of barriers to women’s entrepreneurship development is proposed. The article substantiates the directions of overcoming these barriers that contribute to the development of women’s entrepreneurial potential.