Transformation of spatio-temporal pattern of river regime in Belarus according to climate changes

Authors

  • Irina S. Danilovich Institute of Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 10 F. Skaryny Street, Minsk 220076, Belarus; Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus
  • Irina V. Tarasevich Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Belhydromet, 110 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220114, Belarus

Keywords:

low-flow period, snow-melting flood, rain flood, precipitation, drought, climate change
Supporting Agencies
The work was supported by the Belarusian Republican Foundation for Fundamental Research (grants No. X23RNF-122 and X24KI-076).

Abstract

The paper presents an assessment of current changes in the water regime of rivers in Belarus and possible factors of its transformation. There were established the continuing trends towards an increase in winter low-water river flow, the height of winter floods and a simultaneous decrease in spring streamflow with a decrease in the frequency of floods during the spring flood. These stable trends in the change of river regime in the winter – spring season are associated with an increase in westerly across the Atlantic-European sector since the mid 1960s, which led to mild winters, a decrease in snow cover depth, and an increase in the liquid precipitation amount. Current trends in the change of river regime in the warm season are associated with increased meridional circulation since the mid 1990s, increased aridity and a simultaneous increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall, and, as a consequence, an increase in the minimum flow during the summer – autumn low-water period and the height of rain floods in the eastern half of the country. There has been an increase in the frequency of severe hydrological droughts throughout Belarus, but especially in the western part of the republic due to a significant precipitation deficit in recent decades.

Author Biographies

  • Irina S. Danilovich, Institute of Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 10 F. Skaryny Street, Minsk 220076, Belarus; Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

    PhD (geography), docent; leading researcher at the laboratory of climate research, Institute of Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, and associate professor at the department of general geography and hydrometeorology, faculty of geography and geoinformatics, Belarusian State University

  • Irina V. Tarasevich, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Belhydromet, 110 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220114, Belarus

    senior lecturer at the department of general geography and hydrometeorology, faculty of geography and geoinformatics, Belarusian State University, and leading hydrological engineer, Belhydromet

References

  1. Xiong J, Yin J, Guo S, He S, Chen J, Abhishek. Annual runoff coefficient variation in a changing environment: a global perspective. Environmental Research Letters. 2022;17(6):064006. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac62ad.
  2. Frolova NL, Magritskii DV, Kireeva MB, Grigor’ev VYu, Gelfan AN, Sazonov AA, et al. Streamflow of Russian rivers under current and forecasted climate changes: a review of publications. 1. Assessment of changes in the water regime of Russian rivers by observation data. Water Resources. 2022;49(3):333–350. DOI: 10.1134/S0097807822030046.
  3. Lobodzinskyi O, Vasylenko Y, Koshkina O, Nabyvanets Y. Assessing the impact of climate change on discharge in the Horyn River basin by analyzing precipitation and temperature data. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. 2023;11(1):93–106. DOI: 10.26491/mhwm/163286.
  4. Вишневський ВІ, Куций АВ. Багаторічні зміни водного режиму річок України. Київ: Наукова думка; 2022. 251 с.
  5. Brzezińska W, Wrzesiński D, Świątek S. Wpływ ocieplenia klimatu na odpływ rzek w Polsce w latach 1951–2020. W: Kostrzewski A, Abramowicz D, Cichoń M, Hildebrandt-Radke I, Kicińska D, Kolendowicz L, et al., redaktorzy. Geoprzestrzeń. Numer 7, Kompleksowe badania środowiska geograficznego. Poznań: Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe; 2023. s. 59–74.
  6. Wilson D, Hisdal H, Lawrence D. Has streamflow changed in the Nordic countries? Recent trends and comparisons to hydrological projections. Journal of Hydrology. 2010;394(3–4):334–346. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.09.010.
  7. Hansson D, Eriksson C, Omstedt A, Chen D. Reconstruction of river runoff to the Baltic Sea, AD 1500–1995. International Journal of Climatology. 2011;31(5):696–703. DOI: 10.1002/joc.2097.
  8. Gailiušis B, Kriaučiūnienė J, Jakimavičius D, Šarauskienė D. The variability of long-term runoff series in the Baltic Sea drainage basin. Baltica. 2011;24(1):45–54.
  9. Obodovskyi O, Lukianets O, Korohoda N. Estimation of long-tern fluctuations of river water flow by observation data. In: Obodovskyi O, editor. River runoff in Ukraine under climate change conditions. [S. l.]: Lambert Academic Publishing; 2020. p. 79–109.
  10. Snizhko S, Bertola M, Ovcharuk V, Shevchenko O, Blöschl G. Climate change impact on seasonality of flood in the Desna River catchment, North Ukraine. In: 16 th International scientific conference on monitoring of geological processes and ecological condition of the environment; 2022 November 15–18; Kyiv, Ukraine. Volume 2. [S. l.]: European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers; 2022. p. 588–592.
  11. Kireeva MB, Frolova NL, Winde F, Dzhamalov RG, Rets EP, Povalishnikova ES, et al. Low flow on the rivers of the European part of Russia and its hazards. Geography, Environment, Sustainability. 2016;9(4):33–47.
  12. Rimkus E, Stonevičius E, Korneev V, Kažys J, Valiuškevičius G, Pakhomau A. Dynamics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Neman River basin. Environmental Research Letters. 2013;8(4):045014. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/045014.
  13. Stonevičius E, Rimkus E, Kažys J, Bukantis A, Kriaučiūnienė J, Akstinas V, et al. Recent aridity trends and future projections in the Nemunas River basin. Climate Research. 2018;75:143–154. DOI: 10.3354/cr01514.
  14. Poljanšek K, Marín Ferrer M, De Groeve T, Clark I, Faivre N, Peter D, et al. Science for disaster risk management 2017: knowing better and losing less. Poljanšek K, Marín Ferrer M, De Groeve T, Clark I, editors. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union; 2017. 60 p. DOI: 10.2760/451402.
  15. Stahl K, Tallaksen LM, Hannaford J, van Lanen HAJ. Filling the white space on maps of European runoff trends: estimates from a multi-model ensemble. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2012;16(7):2035–2047. DOI: 10.5194/hess-16-2035-2012.
  16. Gudmundsson L, Seneviratne SI, Zhang X. Anthropogenic climate change detected in European renewable freshwater resources. Nature Climate Change. 2017;7(11):813–816. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3416.
  17. Логинов ВФ, Лысенко СА, Мельник ВИ. Изменение климата Беларуси: причины, последствия, возможности регулирования. 2-е издание. Минск: Энциклопедикс; 2020. 263 c.
  18. Данилович ИС, Журавович ЛН, Нагибина МЕ, Квач ЕГ. Особенности формирования водности рек Беларуси в последние десятилетия. Природные ресурсы. 2017;2:5–12.
  19. Данилович ИС, Логинов ВФ. Текущие и ожидаемые изменения климата на территории Беларуси. Центральноазиатский журнал географических исследований. 2021;1–2:35–48.
  20. Danilovich I, Zhuravlev S, Kurochkina L, Groisman P. The past and future estimates of climate and streamflow changes in the Western Dvina River basin. Frontiers in Earth Science. 2019;7:204. DOI: 10.3389/feart.2019.00204.
  21. Полищук АИ, Чекан ГС, редакторы. Гидрологический мониторинг Республики Беларусь. Минск: Кнiгазбор; 2009. 267 с.
  22. Reihan A, Koltsova T, Kriaučiūnienė J, Lizuma L, Meilutytė-Barauskienė D. Changes in water discharges of the Baltic states rivers in the 20th century and its relation to climate change. Nordic Hydrology. 2007;38(4–5):401–412. DOI: 10.2166/nh.2007.020.
  23. Stahl K, Hisdal H, Hannaford J, Tallaksen LM, van Lanen HAJ, Sauquet E, et al. Streamflow trends in Europe: evidence from a dataset of near-natural catchments. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2010;14(12):2367–2382. DOI: 10.5194/hess-14-2367-2010.
  24. Волчек АА, Шелест ТА. Паводки на реках Беларуси. Брест: Брестский государственный университет имени А. С. Пушкина; 2016. 199 с.
  25. Gillett NP, Fyfe JC. Annular mode changes in the CMIP5 simulations. Geophysical Research Letters. 2013;40(6):1189–1193. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50249.
  26. Wrzesiński D. Flow regime patterns and their changes. In: Zeleňáková M, Kubiak-Wójcicka K, Negm AM, editors. Management of water resources in Poland. Cham: Springer; 2021. p. 163–180 (Kostianoy A, Shirshov PP, editors. Springer water). DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-61965-7_9.
  27. Логинов ВФ, Волчек АлА, Волчек АнА. Весенние половодья на реках Беларуси: пространственно-временные колебания и прогноз. Минск: Беларуская навука; 2014. 244 с.
  28. Волчек АА, Корнеев ВН, Парфомук СИ, Булак ИА. Водные ресурсы Беларуси и их прогноз с учетом изменения климата. Волчек АА, Корнеев ВН, редакторы. Брест: Альтернатива; 2017. 239 с.
  29. Лопух ПС, Партасёнок ИС. Влияние атмосферной циркуляции на формирование гидрологического режима рек Беларуси. Минск: Белорусский государственный университет; 2013. 216 с.
  30. Partasenok IS, Groisman PY, Chekan GS, Melnik VI. Winter cyclone frequency and following freshet streamflow formation on the rivers in Belarus. Environmental Research Letters. 2014;9(9):095005. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/9/095005.
  31. Danilovich IS, Loginov VF, Groisman PY. Changes of hydrological extremes in the center of eastern Europe and their plausible causes. Water. 2023;15(16):2992. DOI: 10.3390/w15162992.
  32. Wrzesiński D, Marsz AA, Sobkowiak L, Styszyńska A. Response of low flows of Polish rivers to climate change in 1987–1989. Water. 2022;14(18):2780. DOI: 10.3390/w14182780.
  33. Данилович ИС, Пискунович НГ. Экстремальные проявления в режиме увлажнения на территории Беларуси в условиях трансформации климата. Журнал Белорусского государственного университета. География. Геология. 2021;2:32–44. DOI: 10.33581/ 2521-6740-2021-2-32-44.
  34. Marsz AA, Sobkowiak L, Styszyńska A, Wrzesiński D. Causes and course of climate change and its hydrological consequences in the Greater Poland region in 1951–2020. Quaestiones Geographicae. 2022;41(3):183–206. DOI: 10.14746/quageo-2022-0033.
  35. Попова ВВ, Мацковский ВВ, Михайлов АЮ. Современные изменения климата суши внетропической зоны Северного полушария. Вестник Московского университета. Серия 5, География. 2018;1:3–13. EDN: YPQIRP.
  36. Данилович ИС, Логинов ВФ, Беганский АВ. Влияние циклогенеза в Атлантико-Европейском секторе на пространственно-временное распространение атмосферных осадков в Беларуси. Природные ресурсы. 2023;1:3–15.
  37. Данилович ИС, Гледко ЮА, Тарасевич ИВ. Повторяемость засух на территории Беларуси в связи с атмосферной циркуляцией в Атлантико-Европейском секторе. Метеорология и гидрология. 2023;9:61–71. DOI: 10.52002/0130-2906-2023-9-61-71.
  38. Логинов ВФ, Данилович ИС, Китаев ЛМ, Акентьева ЕМ. Современные и ожидаемые гидроклиматические изменения в бассейнах Балтийского и арктических морей в пределах территорий Беларуси и России. Доклады Национальной академии наук Беларуси. 2022;66(3):338–347. DOI: 10.29235/1561-8323-2022-66-3-338-347.
  39. Попова ВВ. Современные тренды осадков и атмосферной циркуляции в речных бассейнах европейской части России. Известия Российской академии наук. Серия географическая. 2023;87(1):60–76. DOI: 10.31857/S2587556623010144.

Downloads

Additional Files

Published

2025-07-09

Issue

No. 1 (2025): Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology

Section

Geography

License

Copyright (c) 2025 Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

The authors who are published in this journal agree to the following:

  1. The authors retain copyright on the work and provide the journal with the right of first publication of the work on condition of license Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial. 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0).
  2. The authors retain the right to enter into certain contractual agreements relating to the non-exclusive distribution of the published version of the work (e.g. post it on the institutional repository, publication in the book), with the reference to its original publication in this journal.
  3. The authors have the right to post their work on the Internet (e.g. on the institutional store or personal website) prior to and during the review process, conducted by the journal, as this may lead to a productive discussion and a large number of references to this work. (See The Effect of Open Access.)

How to Cite

Transformation of spatio-temporal pattern of river regime in Belarus according to climate changes. (2025). Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology, 1, 99-107. https://doi.org/10.33581/2521-6740-2025-1-99-107