Variability of snow cover extreme characteristics in the modern climate of Siberia

Authors

  • Lev M. Kitaev Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, 29 Staromonetnyj Lane, 4 building, Moscow 119017, Russia
  • Tatiana B. Titkova Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, 29 Staromonetnyj Lane, 4 building, Moscow 119017, Russia
  • Maria A. Aleshina Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, 29 Staromonetnyj Lane, 4 building, Moscow 119017, Russia

Keywords:

snow cover, air temperature, precipitation, average values, percentiles, linear trend coefficients, correlation, difference integral curves
Supporting Agencies
The work was carried out within the framework of the Programme of fundamental scientific research of state academies of sciences (topic FMWS-2024-0001 «Climate changes, their causes and consequences for the environment and life of the population in Russia», assignment 1021051403088-5).

Abstract

Long-term (up to seven months a year) occurrence of snow cover in the north of Eurasia determines the possibility of the influence of variability of the magnitude and frequency of manifestations of extremes of snow reserves on the speed and direction of climate and water balance changes. In this regard, an assessment of the long-term variability of average and extreme (percentiles 5 and 95 %) values of snow cover thickness in Siberia was carried out taking into account the features of the meteorological regime of the region in 1976 –2022. Using observation data from meteorological stations, positive long-term trends in average values and extremes of snow cover thickness (more than 1.5 сm in 10 years) prevailing across the territory were identified against the background of an increase in average values and extremes of air temperature (from 0 to 2.5 °С in 10 years) and precipitation (more than 0.40 and 0.04 mm in 10 years for average values and maximum extremes, as well as 0.2–1.0 days in 10 years for the number of days without precipitation), which generally corresponds to the patterns of global warming. The most intense long-term changes in characteristics were noted in Western and Central Siberia. The dependence of long-term changes in snow cover thickness characteristics on the meteorological regime as a whole is most pronounced for maximum precipitation extremes (beta coefficients are 10.91– 64.71 with regression coefficients equal to 0.34 – 0.68) due to the direct connection between changes in snow cover thickness and precipitation with a long-term increase in air temperature, but in the region of negative values. The analysis of the difference integral curves showed the presence of two decreases in the long-term course of the period characteristics (in 1985–1995 and 2005–2015), corresponding to decreases in the long-term course of the Arctic and North Atlantic oscillation indices. For the snow cover thickness, insufficient accuracy of reproduction of average values, extremes and linear trend coefficients by ERA5-Land reanalysis with deviations from observation data coefficients of 2–5 times was determined.

Author Biographies

  • Lev M. Kitaev, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, 29 Staromonetnyj Lane, 4 building, Moscow 119017, Russia

    PhD (geography); senior researcher at the laboratory of climatology

  • Tatiana B. Titkova, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, 29 Staromonetnyj Lane, 4 building, Moscow 119017, Russia

    PhD (geography); senior researcher at the laboratory of climatology

  • Maria A. Aleshina, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, 29 Staromonetnyj Lane, 4 building, Moscow 119017, Russia

    PhD (geography); junior researcher at the laboratory of climatology

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Published

2025-06-11

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No. 1 (2025): Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology

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Geography

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Variability of snow cover extreme characteristics in the modern climate of Siberia. (2025). Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology, 1, 47-59. https://journals.bsu.by/index.php/geography/article/view/6785