Use of tempered stable distributions in GARCH(1, 1) models

Authors

  • Uladzimir S. Tserakh Belarusian State University, Niezaliežnasci Avenue, 4, 220030, Minsk, Belarus

Keywords:

GARCH model, stable distribution, tempered stable distribution, maximum likelihood method

Abstract

Use of classical and modified tempered stable distributions for GARCH models is considered in the paper. Such models are applied for the analysis of financial and economic time series, which have several special properties: volatility clustering, heavy tails and asymmetry of residuals distributions. Comparison of the properties of stable and tempered stable distributions is presented; methodologies for constructing models and subsequent estimation of parameters using the maximum likelihood method are described. An experimental based on model data comparative analysis of the accuracy of models parameters estimates for different residuals distributions was held, and it confirms the operability of the used methods. An example of building models on real data is considered.

Author Biography

  • Uladzimir S. Tserakh, Belarusian State University, Niezaliežnasci Avenue, 4, 220030, Minsk, Belarus

    postgraduate student at the department of probability theory and mathematical statistics, faculty of applied mathematics and computer science

References

  1. Bollerslev T. Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. J. Econom. 1986. Vol. 31, No. 3. P. 307–327.
  2. Paolella M. S. Stable-GARCH models for financial returns: Fast estimation and tests for stability. Econometrics. 2016. Vol. 4, No. 2. P. 1–28.
  3. Francq C., Meintanis S. G. Fourier-type estimation of the power GARCH model with stable-paretian innovations. Metrika. 2016. Vol. 79. P. 389 – 424.
  4. Tserakh U. S., Troush N. N. Issledovanie modeley GARCH(1, 1) s ustoychivymi vozmushcheniyami [GARCH(1, 1) models with stable perturbations]. The XII Belarusian Mathematical Conference (Minsk, 5–10 Sept., 2016) : thesis. Minsk, 2016. P. 14 (in Russ.).
  5. Koponen I. Analytic approach to the problem of convergence of truncated Levy flights towards the Gaussian stochastic process. Phys. Rev. E. 1995. Vol. 52, issue 1. P. 1197–1199. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.52.1197.
  6. Kim Y. S., Rachev S. T., Chung D. M. The modified tempered stable distribution, GARCH-models and option pricing. Technical report, Chair of Econometrics, Statistics and Mathematical Finance School of Economics and Business Engineering University of Karlsruhe. Karlsruhe, 2006.
  7. Tserakh U. S. Postroenie i issledovanie svoistv M-ocenki parametrov modeli GARCH(1, 1) [M-estimate of GARCH(1, 1) model parameters computation and exploration]. The 72nd Scientific BSU Conference of students and postgraduate students (Minsk, 11–22 May, 2015) : in 3 parts. Minsk, 2015. Part 1. P. 112–115 (in Russ.).

Downloads

Published

2018-05-05

Issue

Section

Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics

How to Cite

[1]
Tserakh, U.S. 2018. Use of tempered stable distributions in GARCH(1, 1) models. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Mathematics and Informatics. 1 (May 2018), 48–58.