Fractional differential model of the spread of COVID-19

Authors

  • Taisia A. Efimova Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8334-5773
  • Igor A. Timoshchenko Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus
  • Natalia G. Abrashina-Zhadaeva Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

Keywords:

COVID-19, SEIRD, fractional derivative, fractional Adams method

Abstract

This paper studies a mathematical model of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic based on ordinary differential equations with a time-fractional derivative. The model takes into account the susceptibility of the population to infection, the incubation period, the number of contacts between healthy and sick people, number of infected, recovered and deceased people in a certain period. To test the model a comparison was made with models obtained with a time derivative of integer orders, with known data for the Italian region of Lombardy. The results suggest that the use of a mathematical model based on a time-fractional derivative with the help of data such as susceptibility of the population to infection, incubation period, number of infected, recovered and deceased people in a certain period, ultimately can help health authorities to develop effective measures against the pandemic. This is especially possible if we expand the model and consider partial differential equations describing the convection-diffusion process, taking into account the prediction of the geographical distribution of the most important medical resources.

Author Biographies

  • Taisia A. Efimova, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

    student at the faculty of physics

  • Igor A. Timoshchenko, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

    senior lecturer at the department of computer modelling, faculty of physics

  • Natalia G. Abrashina-Zhadaeva, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

    doctor of science (physics and mathematics), docent; professor at the department of higher mathematics and mathematical physics, faculty of physics

References

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Published

2021-10-13

Issue

No. 3 (2021): Journal of the Belarusian State University. Physics

Section

Biophysics

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How to Cite

(1)
Efimova, T. A.; Timoshchenko, I. A.; Abrashina-Zhadaeva, N. G. Fractional Differential Model of the Spread of COVID-19. Журнал Белорусского государственного университета. Физика 2021, No. 3, 40-48. https://doi.org/10.33581/2520-2243-2021-3-40-48.
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