Reproductive intentions of women in Europe: analysis of the results of sociological research on the program «Generations and gender»

Authors

  • David G. Rotman Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus
  • Artur Y. Denisov Centre for System Analysis and Strategic Research, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 1-102 Akademicheskaya Street, Minsk 220072, Belarus
  • Andrei A. Belov Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

Keywords:

reproductive intentions, expected fertility, reproductive behavior, total fertility rate, hypothetical generation, large families

Abstract

The article analyzes age features of women’s reproductive intentions for a three-year perspective on the basis of sociological research of the international program «Generations and Gender Programme». The reproductive potential is estimated, that is the level of fertility, provided that all reproductive intentions are fully realized. A comparative analysis of reproductive intentions and reproductive potential in the countries of Europe has been carried out. It was concluded that there is a connection between the actual level of fertility and the prevalence of the norm of large families, as well as between the level of reproductive intentions and actual fertility.

Author Biographies

  • David G. Rotman, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

    doctor of science (sociology), full professor; director of the Center for Sociological and Political Researches

  • Artur Y. Denisov, Centre for System Analysis and Strategic Research, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 1-102 Akademicheskaya Street, Minsk 220072, Belarus

    master of science (sociology); senior researcher

  • Andrei A. Belov, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

    master of science (sociology), postgraduate student at the department of sociology, faculty of philosophy and social sciences

References

  1. Belova V. A. Statistika mnenii v izuchenii rozhdaemosti [Statistics of views in the study of fertility]. Moscow : Statistika, 1972 (in Russ.).
  2. Belova V. A. Chislo detei v sem’e [Number of children in the family]. Moscow : Statistika, 1975 (in Russ.).
  3. Shahot’ko L. P. Naselenie Respubliki Belarus’ v kontse XX veka [Population of the Republic of Belarus at the end of the 20th century]. Minsk : NIIS, 1996 (in Russ.).
  4. Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys, UNICEF. URL: www.mics.unicef.org (date of access: 16.04.2018).
  5. Nour E.-S. On the Estimation of the Distribution of Desired Family Size for a Synthetic Cohort. Population Studies. 1983. Vol. 37, No. 2. P. 315–322.
  6. Huynh C.-L. Estimation and Analysis of Desired Family Size with WFS Data. Proceedings of the Section on Survey Research Methods : the Annual Meeting of the American Statistical Association (8–12 August 1993, San Francisco, California) : in 2 vols. Alexandria, 1993. Vol. 2. P. 609–616.
  7. Westoff C. F., Ryder N. B. The Predictive Validity of Reproductive Intentions. Demography. 1977. Vol. 14, No. 4. P. 431–453.
  8. Bhushan I., Hill K. The Measurements and Interpretation of Desired Fertility. Baltimore, 1995.
  9. [Belarus: family structure, family relations, reproductive behavior. Preliminary results of a sociological survey conducted in May-November 2017 on the methodology of the UNECE international program «Generations and Gender»]. UNFPA Belarus. URL: https://belarus.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/GGS %20Промежуточный %20отчет % 20_Belarus.pdf (date of access: 16.04.2018) (in Russ.).
  10. Bongaarts J., Feeney G. On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility. Populat. Dev. Rev. 1998. Vol. 24, No. 2. P. 271–291.
  11. Goldstein J. R., Sobotka T. The End of «Lowest-Low» Fertility? Popul. Dev. Rev. 2009. Vol. 35, No. 4. P. 663–699.
  12. Bongaarts J., Feeney G. The quantum and tempo of life-cycle events. Vienna Yearbook Populat. Res. 2006. Vol. 4, No. 1. P. 115–151.
  13. Bongaarts J., Sobotka T. A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility. Populat. Dev. Rev. 2012. Vol. 38, No. 1. P. 83–120.
  14. The Human Fertility Database. URL: www.humanfertility.org (date of access: 16.04.2018).
  15. Demographic Data Sheets (in chronological order). The Vienna Inst. Demography. URL: www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/data/demographic-data-sheets (date of access: 16.04.2018).
  16. Kaa van de D. J. Anchored Narratives: The Story and Findings of Half a Century of Research into the Determinants of Fertility. Populat. Dev. Rev. 1996. Vol. 50, No. 3. P. 389–432.
  17. Rotman D. G. (ed.). Tsennostnyi mir sovremennogo cheloveka: strany Vostochnogo partnerstva, Evropeiskii Soyuz i Rossiya v mezhdunarodnykh proektakh po izucheniyu tsennostei [The value world of modern man: the countries of the Eastern Partnership, the European Union and Russia in international projects on the study of values]. Minsk : BSU, 2016 (in Russ.).
  18. Thompson E. Couple childbearing desires, intentions, and births. Demography. 1997. Vol. 34, No. 3. P. 343–354.

Downloads

Published

2019-03-14

Issue

No. 2 (2018): Journal of the Belarusian State University. Sociology

Section

Generations and Gender

License

The authors who are published in this journal agree to the following:

  1. The authors retain copyright on the work and provide the journal with the right of first publication of the work on condition of license Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial. 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0).
  2. The authors retain the right to enter into certain contractual agreements relating to the non-exclusive distribution of the published version of the work (e.g. post it on the institutional repository, publication in the book), with the reference to its original publication in this journal.
  3. The authors have the right to post their work on the Internet (e.g. on the institutional store or personal website) prior to and during the review process, conducted by the journal, as this may lead to a productive discussion and a large number of references to this work. (See The Effect of Open Access.)

How to Cite

[1]
Rotman, D.G. et al. 2019. Reproductive intentions of women in Europe: analysis of the results of sociological research on the program «Generations and gender». Journal of the Belarusian State University. Sociology. 2 (Mar. 2019), 85–96.