Stability of the pension system of the Republic of Belarus in the context of demographic tendencies

Authors

  • Andrei A. Belov Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Centre for System Analysis and Strategic Research, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 1 Akademičnaja Street, Minsk 220072, Belarus

Keywords:

demographic projection, pension system, old-age-dependency ratio, population aging, population size, expectation of life at birth

Abstract

Projection of size and sex-age structure of the population of the Republic of Belarus until 2050 is made in the article on the base of component method. Two projection scenarios are considered. Based on the projection data, the expected increase in the number and proportion of persons aged 60 years and over, as well as the number of retirement age persons and the old-age-dependency ratio are analyzed. It is concluded that the three-year increase of retirement age in 2017–2022 leads to a decrease in the pension burden. However, the trend towards aging of the population completely negates the effect of this reform by 2025. New reforms will be needed to save the pension burden at the same level in 2023–2050. The possible increase in the retirement age by 2050 is assessed.

Author Biography

  • Andrei A. Belov, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Centre for System Analysis and Strategic Research, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 1 Akademičnaja Street, Minsk 220072, Belarus

    PhD (sociology); senior lecturer at the department of sociology, faculty of philosophy and social sciences, Belarusian State University, head of the sector of organization and management of science and innovation sphere, Centre for System Analysis and Strategic Research, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus

References

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  2. Medvedeva IV, Kangro IS, Vasilevskaya ZhN, Dovnar OA, Kukharevich EI, Lapkovskaya TV, et al. editors. Demograficheskii ezhegodnik Respubliki Belarus’. Minsk: National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus; 2018. 440 p. Russian.
  3. The Human Fertility Database [Internet; cited 2019 May 15]. Available from: http://www.humanfertility.org.
  4. Rakov AA. Demograficheskie ritmy i peremeny: k poznaniyu belorusskogo sotsium [Demographic rhythms and changes: to the knowledge of the Belarusian society]. Minsk: Belaruskaja navuka; 2014. 335 p. Russian.
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Published

2019-07-21

Issue

No. 2 (2019): Journal of the Belarusian State University. Sociology

Section

From the Working Table of a Sociologist

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How to Cite

[1]
Belov, A.A. 2019. Stability of the pension system of the Republic of Belarus in the context of demographic tendencies. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Sociology. 2 (Jul. 2019), 130–138.