Prognosys of the consequences of the severe accident at the Belorusian NPP to public health

Abstract

The article presents the results of assessment of the levels of emergency radionuclide discharge, gamma dose rates, radionuclide fallout, as well as the prognosis of public exposure doses to the population of Belarus as a result of a possible severe nuclear accident at the Belarusian NPP. It was found that, in the case of a severe nuclear accident at the Belarusian NPP with total activity of the accidental release of 4.540¹⁵ Bq, the transfer of radioactive contamination to a distance up to 100 km from the site under various meteorological scenarios, will be less than 2 hours. The total contamination density of the territory with ¹³¹I and ¹³⁷Сб isotopes within 100 km radius around the Belarusian NPP will be less than 29 kBq/m^1 2 (0.78 Ci/km²) and less than 5.6 kBq/m² (0.15 Ci/km²) respectivelly. Maximum value of the thyroid dose will be up to 93.8 mSv, and of the effective dose - 2.86 mSv. Based on the obtained results, the justification for public protective measures was made and recommendations were given for conducting emergency radiation monitoring, taking into account international recommendations and national radiation safety standards of the Republic of Belarus..