METHODOLOGICAL ASPECTS FOR PROJECTIONS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS IN THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Keywords:
greenhouse gases, agriculture, scenario modeling, emission projections, nationally determined contribution, climate policy, low-carbon technologiesAbstract
Projections of Greenhouse Gas Emissions is a key analytical tool for development of National Climate Strategies, updating Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), assessing the effectiveness of climate mitigation measures, and planning socio-economic development. This paper presents the methodological approaches for projections of greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural sector of the Republic of Belarus up to 2035, developed in the context of predation of the third Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement. Based on international guidelines and national data, three development scenarios were developed. Key scenario assumptions were substantiated, reflecting current trends in livestock production, crop cultivation, and fertilizer application. A list of priority low emission measures was identified,
including biogas technologies, precision and organic farming, conservation of degraded peatlands, and optimization of cattle feeding practices. For each measure, specific efficiency indicators (emission reductions per unit of implementation) were calculated, enabling a quantitative assessment of their contribution to reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
The methodology and results of this study can be used in mapping of climate policy in Belarus.
References
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policymakers [Internet, cited 2025 September 22]. IPCC. Switzerland, 2021. Available from: https://www.ipcc.ch.
- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (adopted in New York on 09.05.1992). [Internet, cited 2025 September 22]. Available from: https://www.un.org/ru/documents/decl_conv/conventions/climate_framework_conv.shtml.
- Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (adopted in Kyoto on 11.12.1997) [Internet, cited 2025 September 22]. Available from: https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kprus.pdf.
- Paris Agreement (adopted in Paris on 12.12.2015) [Internet, cited 2025 September 22]. Available from: https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/paris_nov_2015/application/pdf/paris_agreement_russian_.pdf.
- Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus No. 553 of 29.09.2021 «On Establishing the Nationally Determined Contribution of the Republic of Belarus to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction by 2030» [Internet, cited 2025 September 22]. Available from: https://pravo.by/document/?guid=12551&p0=C22100553&p1=1.
- Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus No. 553 of 29.09.2021 «On Establishing the Nationally Determined Contribution of the Republic of Belarus to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction by 2030» [Internet, cited 2025 September 22]. Available from: https://pravo.by/document/?guid=12551&p0=P32100553.
- Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus No. 614 of 06.11.2025 «On Establishing the Nationally Determined Contribution of the Republic of Belarus to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction by 2035» [Internet, cited 2025 September 22]. Available from: https://pravo.by/document/?guid=12551&p0=C22500614.
- IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. 2006. Volume 4: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use [Internet, cited 2025 September 22]. Available from: https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/russian/vol4.html.
- Modalities, procedures and guidelines for the transparency framework for action and support referred to in Article 13 of the Paris Agreement. Decision 18/CMA.1 [Internet, cited 2025 September 22]. Available from: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/CMA_2018_3a02R.pdf.
- National Inventory of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals of the Republic of Belarus, 1990–2023. [Internet, cited 2025 September 22]. Available from: https://unfccc.int/documents/646639.
- Bertosh EI, Narkievich IP. Vliyaniye sel’skokhozyaystvennogo proizvodstva na vybrosy parnikovykh gazov i napravleniya ikh sokrashcheniya v Respublike Belarus [Impact of Agricultural Production on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Pathways for Their Reduction in the Republic of Belarus]. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Ecology. 2024;1:93–101. Russian. https://doi.org/10.46646/2521-683X/2024-1-93-101.
- Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus No. 691 of 20.09.2024 «On Implementation of Precision Agriculture Technology» [Internet, cited 2025 September 22]. Available from: https://pravo.by/document/?guid=12551&p0=C22400691.
- Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus No. 103 of 24.02.2021 «On the State Program ‘Energy Saving’ for 2021–2025» [Internet, cited 2025 September 22]. Available from: https://pravo.by/document/?guid=3871&p0=C22100103.
- Bertosh EI, Gonchar KV, Melekh DV, Narkevich IP, Fursa YuV. Sushchestvuyushchiye bar’yery pri primenenii sistem aktivnoy degazatsii poligonov tverdykh kommunal’nykh otkhodov dlya resheniya ekologicheskikh i klimaticheskikh problem v Respublike Belarus [Existing barriers of using of active degassing systems for municipal solid waste disposal sites to solve environmental and climatic problems in the Republic of Belarus]. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Ecology. 2024;2:86–91. Russian. https://doi.org//10.46646/2521-683X/2024-2-86-91.
- Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus No. 1111 of 30.12.2015 «On Certain Issues Concerning Conservation and Rational (Sustainable) Use of Peatlands» Internet, cited 2025 September 22]. Available from: https://minpriroda.gov.by/ru/news-ru/view/pravitelstvom-prinjata-strategija-ratsionalnogo-ispolzovanija-torfjanikov-1804/.
- FAO. Methane emissions in livestock and rice systems – Sources, quantification, mitigation and metrics. Rome, 2023. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc7607en.
