Verification of the method for reconstruction of individualized external exposure doses to persons living in a contaminated territory with radionuclides
Abstract
Correct assessment of individual exposure doses to the population is an integral component for conducting radiation epidemiological studies to establish the dose-effect relationship and identify the most exposed groups of the population. At the same time, difficulties in assessing individual external exposure doses arise when there is a lack or absence of individual dosimetric control data. In this regard, the assessment of external exposure doses of persons living in areas contaminated with radionuclides is carried out by reconstructing the latter on the basis of official methodological documents. Due to the over conservative nature of exposure dose reconstruction methods, many of them simply don't correspond to the task of dose individualization, since they only allow estimating average values within a locality, and many lead to significant errors of 300% or more. Based on the above, we have previously developed and proposed a new method for reconstructing individualized external exposure dose, which allows us to take into account not only the direct factor of dose formation - the surface contamination density by 137Cs, but also “indirect” factors, such as occupation, gender and age of the individual. To assess the adequacy of the method we developed and the possibility of using it to reconstruct individualized external radiation doses we carried out its verification. A research sample was formed based on individual dosimetric control data of residents of the Mogilev region for 2005 and 2006. The sample was formed taking into account the representativeness by type of occupation of the rural population, by gender and age, which have a statistically justified influence on the formation of the individual external exposure dose. The result of a comparative analysis of reconstructed doses with IDC data showed that for the sample as a whole for each year and for occupational groups, the estimated data and IDC data are completely comparable, the estimation error did not exceed 11%. Thus, verification of the developed method for reconstructing individual external exposure doses to persons living in a radioactively contaminated area showed that the proposed method can be used when there is insufficient amount of IDC data or, in their absence, to predict individual external exposure doses to persons living in a radioactively contaminated area.
References
- Health Effects of the Chernobyl Accident and Special Health Care Programmes (Report of the UN Chernobyl Forum Expert Group «Health»). Geneva: WHO Press; 2006. 182 p. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9241594179
- Skryabin AM, Savkin MN, Grinev M, Robinson CA, Prosser SL, Jones KA. Distribution of doses received in rural areas affected by the Chernobyl accident. Didcot: National Radiological Protection Board; 1995. 52 p.
- Allen PT, Archangelskaya GV, Belyaev ST, Demin VF, Drottz-Sjoberg BM, Hedemann-Jenson P. Optimization of health protection of the public following a major nuclear accident: interaction between radiation protection and social and psychological factors. Health Physics. 1996;71(5):763–765. DOI: 10.1097/00004032-199611000-00019
- Golikov VYu, Balonov MI, Jacob P. External Exposure of the Population Living in Areas of Russia Contaminated due to the Chernobyl Accident. Biophysics. 2002;41(10):185–193. DOI: 10.1007/s00411-002-0167-2
- Vlasova NG, Rozhko AV, Visenberg YuV, Drozd EA. Dose Assessment in Population Living on Contaminated Territories at the Remote Period after the Chernobyl Accident. In: International Conference on Global Emergency Preparedness and Response. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Book of Synopses. IAEA Headquarters, Vienna, Austria, 19–23 October 2015. Reference No: CN-213. 2015:250–255.
- Kulikovich DB, Vlasova NG. Vyyavlenie odnorodnyh po doze vneshnego oblucheniya grupp zhitelej zagryaznennyh territorij po sovokupnosti informativnyh faktor-priznakov [Identification of groups of residents in contaminated territories homogeneous in the external exposure dose by a set of informative factors-signs]. Health and Ecology Issues. 2023;20(1):123–130. https://doi.org/10.51523/2708-6011.2023-20-1-15.Russian.
- Mataras AN, Eventova LN, Visenberg YuV, Vlasova NG. Metodicheskij podhod ocenki individualizirovannyh doz vneshnego oblucheniya lic, podvergshihsya vozdejstviyu radiacii vsledstvie katastrofy na CHAES [Methodological approach to the assessment of individualized external dose in people affected after the Chernobyl accident]. Health and Ecology Issues. 2014;40(2):91–96. https://doi.org/10.51523/2708-6011.2014-11-2-19.Russian.
- Muller H, Prohl G. Ecosys-87: A Dynamic Model for Assessing Radiological Consequences of Nuclear Accidents. Health Physics. 1993;63(3):232–252. DOI: 10.1097/00004032-199303000-00002.
- Kulikovich DB, Vlasova NG. Statisticheskij analiz faktorov, okazyvayushchih vliyanie na formirovanie dozy vneshnego oblucheniya [Statistical analysis of factors contributing to the formation of the external exposure dose]. Health and Ecology. 2022;19(3):99–105. https://doi.org/10.51523/2708-6011.2022-19-3-14.Russian.
- International Atomic Energy Agency. Working papers of the TC project RER/9/074 «Radiation monitoring of public exposure in the remote period after the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant». Vienna: IAEA; 2007.
- Likhtariov I, Kovgan L, Novak D, Vavilov S, Jacob P, Paretzke HG. Effective doses due to external irradiation from the Chernobyl accident for different population groups of Ukraine. Health Physics. 1996;70(1):87–98. DOI: 10.1097/00004032-199601000-00013.
- Kulikovich DB, Vlasova NG, Visenberg YuV, Kuznetsov BK. Metod rekonstrukcii individualizirovannyh doz vneshnego obluchenija lic, prozhivajushhih na zagrjaznennoj radionuklidami territorii vsledstvie avarii na ChAJeS [Method for reconstructing individualized external exposure dose of persons living in a contaminated area with radionuclides as a result of the Chernobyl accident]. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Ecology. 2024;1:46–57. DOI: https://doi.org//10.46646/2521-683X/2024-1-46-57.Russian.
- Kozlova OA, Sekicki-Pavlenko OO. Teoreticheskie osnovanija opredelenija vozrastnyh granic i vozrastnoj struktury naselenija v kontekste demograficheskogo starenija [Theoretical grounds for determining age boundaries and age structure of the population in the context of demographic aging]. AlterEconomics. 2022;19(3):442–463. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31063/AlterEconomics/2022.19-3.3. Russian.
- Masticzkij SE, Shitikov VK. Statisticheskij analiz i vizualizaciya dannyh s pomoshch’yu R [Statistical analysis and Data visualization using R]. Moscow: DMK Press; 2015. 496 p. Russian.
