Economic integration of Russia and Belarus: prospects for growth and exchange of innovations
Keywords:
economic integration, gravity model, ARIMAX model, exponential smoothing model, forecastingAbstract
The article examines the prospects for economic cooperation between Russia and Belarus within the framework of the EAEU, SCO and BRICS integration associations, with an emphasis on the impact of sanctions and their consequences for the economic growth of the countries. The study includes the use of econometric modelling methods to evaluate the forecast of key economic characteristics, such as the GDP of Belarus and the volume of mutual trade, as well as indicators of investment flows and innovative interaction. The autoregressive integrated moving average model with external input data (ARIMAX) was used, as well as the gravity model of foreign trade, which allowed taking into account time trends and external factors influencing forecasts. The exponential smoothing methodology was also used. The results show positive trends in the Belarusian economy with a slight decline in 2022, and a projected increase in mutual trade and the exchange of innovations. Forecasts of mutual investments, on the contrary, indicate a decline in the long term. Further strengthening of economic integration and improvement of the countries’ political and financial positions in the international arena are expected.
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