The scenario of the development of the Union State of Russia and Belarus in the framework of cooperation in integration associations
Keywords:
integration, forecasting of macroeconomic indicators, analysis of variance, ANOVA, modellingAbstract
The current economic situation of the member countries of the Union State is considered. The necessity of this union for Russia and Belarus, as well as the importance of further development of the association are substantiated. The economy of Belarus is largely linked to the economy of Russia, which occupies a leading position in various segments in the Union State and is more financially and economically developed. To analyse and illustrate the current situation, the ranking of countries by the rating of the speed of economic development, the index of innovative development and the index of information and communication technology development, one-factor analysis of variance (ANOVA) for the two states are used. The main risks of interaction in integration associations (inflation, sanctions, personnel, logistics and currency) are identified, as well as their effect on the economy of both countries. Within the framework of the studied indicators, the dynamics of GDP and foreign trade turnover of Belarus, volumes of mutual trade and mutual investments between Russia and Belarus are predicted. Different approaches and algorithms are used for modelling and constructing forecast values: regressions of various functional forms, the ARIMA (ARIMAX) model, exponential smoothing and the Prophet model. The analysis reflects the potential positive effects of the Union State’s participation in integration associations and cooperation with new partners. It is concluded that Belarus and Russia need to continue building common payment systems, exchanging innovations to build up production and economic potential, and technological development.
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