An estimation of the potential effect of integration of the Eurasian Economic Union

Authors

  • Philipp S. Kartaev Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1 Leninskie Gory, 46 building, Moscow 119991, Russia
  • Polina A. Basharenko Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1 Leninskie Gory, 46 building, Moscow 119991, Russia
  • Roman S. Ermolchuk Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1 Leninskie Gory, 46 building, Moscow 119991, Russia
  • Roman P. Kaipov Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1 Leninskie Gory, 46 building, Moscow 119991, Russia
  • Ekaterina V. Potapova Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1 Leninskie Gory, 46 building, Moscow 119991, Russia

Keywords:

gravity model, Poisson’s method, Single Economic Space, integration effect

Abstract

The potential integration effects of the Eurasian Economic Union for Belarus and Russia are assessed. It is noted that participation in this union creates the potential for further trade integration within a Single Economic Space. A gravity model is estimated for the case of «perfect» integration, and the flows of exports. The European Union is considered the «perfect» integration model in terms of the absence of barriers. The least squares and Poisson’s methods are used to estimate the effects. It is concluded that a long-term increase in trade flow from Russia to Belarus will lead to a 2 % increase in trade, while a long-term increase in trade flow from Belarus to Russia will lead to a 26 % increase in trade.

Author Biographies

  • Philipp S. Kartaev, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1 Leninskie Gory, 46 building, Moscow 119991, Russia

    doctor of science (economics), docent; head of the department of micro- and macroeconomic analysis, faculty of economics

  • Polina A. Basharenko, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1 Leninskie Gory, 46 building, Moscow 119991, Russia

    student at the faculty of economics

  • Roman S. Ermolchuk, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1 Leninskie Gory, 46 building, Moscow 119991, Russia

    student at the faculty of economics

  • Roman P. Kaipov, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1 Leninskie Gory, 46 building, Moscow 119991, Russia

    student at the faculty of economics

  • Ekaterina V. Potapova, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 1 Leninskie Gory, 46 building, Moscow 119991, Russia

    student at the faculty of economics

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Published

2026-07-10

Issue

No. 1 (2026): Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics

Section

F. International Economics

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How to Cite

[1]
Kartaev, P.S. et al. 2026. An estimation of the potential effect of integration of the Eurasian Economic Union. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics. 1 (Jul. 2026), 21–32.