Hybrid-production model for long-term forecasting of economic growth

  • Mikhail M. Kovalev Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus
  • Catherine G. Gospodarik Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

Abstract

The article analyses the approaches to the long-term projection of economic growth and its factors (labour, capital and total factor productivity) in the Republic of Belarus by 2050. The authors apply the idea of hybrid approach using production functions in order to forecast the economic growth by 2050 and compare their results with world well-known forecasting institutions. All forecasts of foreign centers are summarized in the consensus forecast. The potential growth of the Belarusian economy according to the hybrid model is quite significant, even considering the bad starting conditions of the last three years.

Author Biographies

Mikhail M. Kovalev, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

doctor of science (physics and mathematics), full professor; dean of the faculty of economics

Catherine G. Gospodarik, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

PhD (economics), docent; associate professor at the department of analytical economics and econometrics, faculty of economics

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Published
2018-10-25
Keywords: forecasting, economic growth, long-term projection, labour and human capital, GDP growth, total factor productivity, capital forecasting
How to Cite
Kovalev, M. M., & Gospodarik, C. G. (2018). Hybrid-production model for long-term forecasting of economic growth. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics, 1, 11-21. Retrieved from https://journals.bsu.by/index.php/economy/article/view/2189
Issue
No 1 (2017): Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics
Section
O. Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth

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