Economic growth in Belarus: what lies beneath the stylized facts
Abstract
This article deals with the assessment of long-run growth environment in Belarus. The paper provides evidence and stylized facts about Belarusian growth. It shows that Belarusian long-run growth rate in 1997–2016 was rather high, but experienced unsustainability. Estimates and indicators presented in the study witness that the unsustainability stems from the lack of productivity fundamentals. A number of recommendations on growth enhancing policy has been formulated in the study, which would allow strengthening growth potential in Belarus.
References
- Where are we headed? Perspectives on Potential Output // World Economic Outlook, April 2015. Washington, 2015. P. 69–110.
- Transition Report 2017–2018. London : EBRD, 2017.
- Eichengreen B., Park D., Shin K. Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on Middle-Income Trap [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w18673.pdf (date of access: 15.01.2018).
- Roads Less Traveled: Growth in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies in a Complicated External Environment // World Economic Outlook, April 2017. Washington, 2017. P. 65–120.
- Демиденко М., Кузнецов А. Экономический рост в Республике Беларусь: факторы и оценка равновесия // Банк. весн. 2012. № 3. С. 1–59.
- Kruk D., Bornukova K. Belarusian Economic Growth Decomposition [Electronic resource] // BEROC working paper series. 2014. № 24. URL: http://eng.beroc.by/webroot/delivery/files/WP_24_eng_Bornukova&Kruk.pdf (date of access: 15.01.2018).
- Безбородова А., Новопольцев А. Оценка совокупной факторной производительности: модель пространства состояний // Банк. весн. 2017. № 10 (651). С. 26–34.
- Мирончик Н., Судник С., Качерская Е. Анализ факторов экономического роста в Беларуси // Банк. весн. 2016. № 9. С. 1–52.
- Adarov A., Bornukova K., Dobrinsky R. The Belarus economy: the challenges of stalled reforms, the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies : res. rep. № 413. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://wiiw.ac.at/the-belarus-economy-the-challenges-of-stalled-reforms-dlp-4032.pdf (date of access: 15.01.2018).
- Coibion O., Gorodnichenko Y., Ulate M. The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output. 2017. No. 23580 [Electronic resource]. URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w23580.pdf (date of access: 15.01.2018).
- The Global Competitiveness Report. Geneva : World Econ. Forum, 2017.
- Hall R., Jones C. Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others? // Q. J. Econ. 1999. № 114 (1). P. 83–116.
- Young A. The Tyranny of the Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience // Q. J. Econ. 1995. № 110 (3). P. 641– 680.
- De Long J., Summers L. Equipment Investment and Economic Growth // Q. J. Econ. 1992. № 106 (2). P. 445–502.
- Greenwood J., Hercowitz Z., Krusell P. Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change // Am. Econ. Rev. 1997. № 87 (3). P. 342–362.
- Hornstein A., Krusell P. Can Technology Improvements Cause Productivity Slowdowns? // NBER Macroeconomics Annual / ed. by J. J. Rotemberg, B. S. Bernanke. Cambridge, 1996.
- Skare M., Sinkovic D. The Role of Equipment Investments in Economic Growth: Cointegration Analysis // Int. J. Econ. Policy Emerg. Econ. 2013. № 1 (6). P. 29– 46.
- Coelli T. J., Rao D. S. P., O’Donnell C. J., et al. An Introduction to Efficiency and Productivity Analysis. New York : Springer, 2005.
The authors who are published in this journal agree to the following:
- The authors retain copyright on the work and provide the journal with the right of first publication of the work on condition of license Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial. 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0).
- The authors retain the right to enter into certain contractual agreements relating to the non-exclusive distribution of the published version of the work (e.g. post it on the institutional repository, publication in the book), with the reference to its original publication in this journal.
- The authors have the right to post their work on the Internet (e.g. on the institutional store or personal website) prior to and during the review process, conducted by the journal, as this may lead to a productive discussion and a large number of references to this work. (See The Effect of Open Access.)