Application of econometric methods for evaluating the impact of economic factors on the long-term credit volumes

  • Juliet G. Abakumova Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9207-0158
  • Stanislau A. Bely Independent researcher, 59-11 Lenina Street, Rahačoŭ 247672, Belarus

Abstract

The implementation of the aims of sustainable economic development in the context of financial constraints determines the need for banks to participate in the investment process. Thus, bank lending is an integral element of the modern economy, naturally acting as an object of state regulation. Using the statistical and econometric methods the influence of internal factors on the lending volume was investigated, and a model was constructed in the distributed lags of the forecast for the growth of long-term lending. The model shows that such indicators as the producer price index of industrial products, the refinancing rate, the devaluation of the national currency and the M2 monetary aggregate have a significant impact on the volume of long-term lending. The findings obtained during the study and on the basis of the model can be used by banks to develop a policy for lending to the real sector of the country’s economy, as well as by enterprises to improve their business activities.

Author Biographies

Juliet G. Abakumova, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

senior lecturer at the department of analy tical economy and econometrics, faculty of economics

Stanislau A. Bely, Independent researcher, 59-11 Lenina Street, Rahačoŭ 247672, Belarus

independent researcher

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Published
2019-05-29
Keywords: bank lending, long-term loans, econometric model, distributed lag model, forecasting
How to Cite
Abakumova, J. G., & Bely, S. A. (2019). Application of econometric methods for evaluating the impact of economic factors on the long-term credit volumes. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics, 1, 28-35. Retrieved from https://journals.bsu.by/index.php/economy/article/view/2263
Issue
No 1 (2019): Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics
Section
C. Mathematical and Quantitative Methods

Copyright (c) 2019 Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics

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