Exploring SVAR-based empirical measure of inflation expectations for Belarus: implications for monetary policy

  • Dzmitry E. Kruk Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Economic Research Center BEROC, 11B Hazety «Praŭda» Avenue, Minsk 220016, Belarus https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3770-9323

Abstract

This article explores empirical SVAR-based measure of inflation expectations for Belarus. Properties of this measure result in a diagnosis that inflation expectations in Belarus are highly volatile and unanchored. Level shifts in inflation expectations give a rise to a specific phenomenon of Belarusian monetary environment which is multiple regimes of functionality with severely different properties. This sensitively restricts the effectiveness of monetary policy in the country. Hence, stabilizing inflation expectations at a reasonably low level and anchoring them is argued to be an important precondition for effective monetary policy in Belarus.

Author Biography

Dzmitry E. Kruk, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Economic Research Center BEROC, 11B Hazety «Praŭda» Avenue, Minsk 220016, Belarus

senior lecturer at the department of corporate finance, faculty of economic, Belarusian State University, and senior researcher, Economic Research Center BEROC

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Published
2020-07-03
Keywords: inflation expectations, empirical measures of inflation expectations, monetary policy, Belarus
How to Cite
Kruk, D. E. (2020). Exploring SVAR-based empirical measure of inflation expectations for Belarus: implications for monetary policy. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics, 1, 4-16. Retrieved from https://journals.bsu.by/index.php/economy/article/view/2283
Issue
No 1 (2020): Journal of the Belarusian State University. Economics
Section
C. Mathematical and Quantitative Methods

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