On the issue of typology of regions of the Republic of Belarus in the context of demographic resilience

Authors

  • Ekaterina A. Antipova Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus
  • Liliya O. Sushkevich Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

Keywords:

Republic of Belarus, regions, demographic stability, typological matrix, territorial polarisation and differentiation, types of administrative districts by the nature of annual population dynamics
Supporting Agencies
The study was carried out within the framework of the state scientific research programme «Society and humanitarian security of the Belarusian state» for 2021–2025 (subprogramme «Economy», assignment 3.04 «Scientific foundations for the development of human capital in the context of ensuring social, demographic, environmental and economic security in the Republic of Belarus», research work «Improving the theoretical and methodological foundations for assessing regional demographic security and human capital of the Republic of Belarus in the context of the globalisation of the world economy» (state registration No. 20211948)).

Abstract

Based on the official statistical information of the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus for 1999 –2023, the spatial and temporal analysis of the annual population dynamics at the micro geographical level (115 cities, 83 urban-type settlements and 118 administrative districts) was carried out. The theoretical basis of the study is the concept of demographic resilience. Using the mathematical-statistical, comparative-geographical, cartographic methods, as well as grouping method, typological matrix and GIS tools, it was found that, compared to the end of the 20th century, over the period 1999 –2023, territorial polarisation and differentiation in urban settlements and rural areas of the Republic of Belarus at the micro geographical level increased. Similarities and differences in the dynamics of the urban and rural population of the Republic of Belarus at the local level were revealed. The similarities consist in the identification of growing and shrinking cities and rural areas, with the latter predominating (68 and 97 %, respectively), detection of an identical relationship between the population size and the annual rates of its decline, which is expressed in higher values of annual decline in small urban settlements (less than 20 thsd people) and rural areas (less than 10 thsd people). The differences are establishing lower annual rates of decline in the urban population compared to the rural population and identifying stable cities, identifying small cities with stable positive dynamics, determining a more homogeneous spatial picture of the dynamics of the rural population compared to a more heterogeneous spatial picture of the dynamics of the urban population. The analysis of the developed consolidated typological matrix made it possible to identify three types of districts in the Republic of Belarus in the context of demographic stability: demographically stable districts (4 %), represented by the districts of the Minsk Region, as well as the Brest and Ostrovets regions; demographic buffer districts (28 %), the majority of which are geographically located in the Minsk, Brest and Gomel regions; demographically problematic (instabile) districts (68 %), primarily located in the Vitebsk, Grodno and Mogilev regions. The identified differences serve as evidence of the validity of using of the typological approach at the local level and as a scientific tool for using a territorially oriented approach taking into account demographic diversity in developing public policy measures to ensure demographic resilience.

Author Biographies

  • Ekaterina A. Antipova, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

    doctor of science (geography), full professor; professor at the department of economic and social geography, faculty of geography and geoinformatics

  • Liliya O. Sushkevich, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

    PhD (geography); head of the department of economic and social geography, faculty of geography and geoinformatics

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Published

2026-02-23

Issue

No. 2 (2025): Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology

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Geography

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How to Cite

[1]
Antipova, E.A. and Sushkevich, L.O. 2026. On the issue of typology of regions of the Republic of Belarus in the context of demographic resilience. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology. 2 (Feb. 2026), 48–64.