Precipitation extremes over territory of Belarus under current climate change

  • Irina S. Danilovich Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Institute of Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 10 F. Skaryny Street, Minsk 220114, Belarus https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6792-7279
  • Nikita G. Piskunovich Institute of Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 10 F. Skaryny Street, Minsk 220114, Belarus
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33581/2521-6740-2021-2-32-44

Abstract

The study presents an investigation of current and future changes in precipitation regime over territory of Belarus. An assessment of precipitation means and extremes and droughts indices was provided for period of 1948–2019 and more detailed analysis have been carried out for period of climate change in 1989–2019. The precipitation expected changes were studied for period of 2021–2099. It was established that precipitation growth up to 20–30 % in winter during 1989–2019 in comparison by 1948–1988, is connected with increase the number of days with weak precipitation and caused by growing duration of liquid precipitation falling. In summer the reducing of rain falling duration was noticed over territory of Belarus. At the same time the significant growth of precipitation maximal totals per day by 20–30 % was detected. The largest growth was found in the south of the country. Dry days number raised by 1–4 days and dry and hot days numbers raised by 1–2 days per decade. The repeatability of atmosphere droughts of different gradations increased up to 2–26 % by the majority of meteorological stations. According to climate projections based on the EURO-CORDEX-11, the growth of yearly and seasonal precipitation is expected over territory of Belarus. The precipitation increase is connected with growth of intense precipitation. At the same time, the dry periods duration is projected to rise in the warm part of the year. These tendencies are characterised the climate extremeness increase in the current century.

Author Biographies

Irina S. Danilovich, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Institute of Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 10 F. Skaryny Street, Minsk 220114, Belarus

PhD (geography), docent; associate professor at the department of earth science and hydrometeorology, faculty of geography and geoinformatics, Belarusian State University, and leading researcher at the Center for Climate Research, Institute of Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus

Nikita G. Piskunovich, Institute of Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 10 F. Skaryny Street, Minsk 220114, Belarus

junior researcher at the Center for Climate Research

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Published
2021-12-28
Keywords: precipitation, maximal totals, rainfall duration, standardised indices of precipitation, droughts, climate projections
How to Cite
Danilovich, I. S., & Piskunovich, N. G. (2021). Precipitation extremes over territory of Belarus under current climate change. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology, 2, 32-44. https://doi.org/10.33581/2521-6740-2021-2-32-44
Issue
No 2 (2021): Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology
Section
Geography

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