Relationship between atmospheric circulation and natural hazards over the territory of Belarus during the period of climate change

  • Irina S. Danilovich Institute for Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 10 Franсyska Skaryny Street, Minsk 220114, Belarus; Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus
  • Katsiaryna S. Berezhkova Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

Abstract

The study presents an assessment of the relationship between atmospheric circulation indices (modes) in the Atlantic-European sector (North Atlantic Oscillation index, Arctic Oscillation index, and Scandinavian Blocking index) and natural hazards, such as heavy precipitation, blizzards and thunderstorms. Statistically significant correlation coefficients were detected for these modes and events. It is shown that the intense precipitation over the territory of Belarus in winter is associated with the positive phase of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations and North Atlantic cyclones tracks. However, snowstorms frequency is higher at the negative phase of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations. In summer, intense precipitation is partly associated with the negative phase of North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations and the southern cyclones outlets. The greatest frequency of thunderstorms is observed with positive phase of the Scandinavian Blocking.

Author Biographies

Irina S. Danilovich, Institute for Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 10 Franсyska Skaryny Street, Minsk 220114, Belarus; Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

PhD (geography), docent; leading researcher at the laboratory of climate research, Center of Geoecology and Climatology, Institute for Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, and associate professor at the department of general geography of the Earth and hydrometeorology, faculty of geography and geoinformatics, Belarusian State University

 

Katsiaryna S. Berezhkova, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

senior lecturer at the department of general geography of the Earth and hydrometeorology, faculty of geography and geoinformatics

 

References

  1. European Academies’ Science Advisory Council. Extreme weather events in Europe [Internet]. 2018 [cited 2023 January 12]. Available from: https://easac.eu/fileadmin/PDF_s/reports_statements/Extreme_Weather/EASAC_Extreme_Weather_2018_web.pdf.
  2. Shaw TA, Baldwin M, Barnes EA, Caballero R, Garfinkel CI, Hwang Y-T, et al. Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change. Nature Geoscience. 2016;9(9):656–664. DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2783.
  3. Lehmann A, Getzlaff K, Harlas J. Detailed assessment of climate variability in the Baltic Sea area for the period 1958 to 2009. Climate Resources. 2011;46(2):185–196. DOI: 10.3354/cr00876.
  4. Sousa PM, Trigo RM, Barriopedro D, Soares PMM, Ramos AM, Liberato MLR. Responses of European precipitation distributions and regimes to different blocking locations. Climate Dynamic. 2017;48(3–4):1141–1160. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-016-3132-5.
  5. Taszarek M, Allen JT, Brooks HE, Pilguj N, Czernecki B. Differing trends in the United States and European severe thunderstorm environments in a warming climate. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2021;102(2):296–322. DOI: 10.1175/BAMSD-20-0004.1.
  6. Skultety F, Jarosova M, Rostas J. Dangerous weather phenomena and their effect on en-route flight delays in Europe. Transportation Research Procedia. 2021;59:174–182. DOI: 10.1016/j.trpro.2021.11.109.
  7. Taszarek М, Kendzierski S, Pilguj N. Hazardous weather affecting European airports: climatological estimates of situations with limited visibility, thunderstorm, low-level wind shear and snowfall from ERA5. Weather and Climate Extremes. 2020;28:100243. DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2020.100243.
  8. Hulton F, Schultz DM. Climatology of Large Hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database. EGUsphere [Internet]. 2023 [cited 2023 April 30]. Available from: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-176. DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-176.
  9. Arazny A, Laszyca E. Selected meteorological phenomena posing a hazard to aviation: a case study on Bydgoszcz airport, central Poland. Bulletin of Geography. Physical Geography Series. 2020;18:61–71. DOI: 10.2478/bgeo-2020-0005.
  10. Vautard R, Yiou P, van Oldenborgh GJ. Decline of fog, mist and haze in Europe over the past 30 years. Nature Geoscience. 2009;2(2):115–119. DOI: 10.1038/ngeo414.
  11. Donat MG, Renggli D, Wild S, Alexander LV, Leckebusch GC, Ulbrich U. Reanalysis suggests long-term upward trends in European storminess since 1871. Geophysical Research Letters. 2011;38(14):L14703. DOI: 10.1029/2011GL047995.
  12. Nissen KM, Leckebusch GC, Pinto JG, Renggli D, Ulbrich S, Ulbrich U. Cycline causing wind storms in the Mediterranean: chatacteristics, trends and links to large-scale patterns. Natural Hazards, Earth System Science. 2010;10:1379–1391. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-10-1379-2010.
  13. von Storch H, Lehmann A, Maraun D, editors. Second assessment of climate change for the Baltic Sea Basin. Cham: Springer; 2015. 501 p. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-16006-1.
  14. Copernicus Climate Change Service. European state of the climate – 2019 [Internet]. 2020 [cited 2023 February 15]. Available from: https://climate.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/2020-04/ESOTC2019_summary.pdf.
  15. Ministry of the Environment of the Republic of Latvia. Fourth National Communication of the Republic of Latvia to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Riga: Ministry of the Environment of the Republic of Latvia; 2006. 160 p.
  16. Balabukh V, Lavrynenko O, Bilaniuk V, Mykhnovych A, Pylypovych O. Extreme weather events in Ukraine: occurrence and changes. In: Sallis PJ, editor. Extreme weather [Internet]. 2018 [cited 2022 September 9]. Available from: https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/61828. DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.77306.
  17. Kozuchowski K, Zmudzka E. Ocieplenie w Polsce: skala i rozklad sezonowy zmian temperatury powietrza w drugiej polowie XX wieku. Przegląd Geofizyczny. 2001;46(1–2):81–90.
  18. Berezhkova ES, Lopuch PS. [Trend risks associated with hazardous meteorological phenomena in civil aviation on the territory of Belarus]. Geagrafija. 2023;1:3–7. Russian.
  19. Perevedentsev YuP, Lopuch PS, Hledko YA, Berezhkova KS, Van Khao, Schlender TV. Features of climate change in the European territory of the Union State of Russia and Belarus of the beginning of the 21st century. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology. 2022;2:69–87. Russian. DOI: 10.33581/2521-6740-2022-2-69-87.
  20. Danilovich IS, Loginov VF. Current and expected climate changes over the territory of Belarus. Central Asian Journal of the Geographical Researches. 2021;1–2:35–48. Russian.
  21. Danilovich IS, Kostyuchenko IV. [Transformation of the wind regime on the territory of Belarus in a changing climate]. Geagrafija. 2023;2:8–16. Russian.
  22. Hurrell JW, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M. An overview of the North Atlantic Oscillation. In: Hurrell JW, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M, editors. In the North Atlantic Oscillation: climatic significance and environmental impact. Washington: American Geophysical Union; 2003. p. 1–35. DOI: 10.1029/134GM01.
  23. Gillett NP, Fyfe JC. Annular mode changes in the CMIP5 simulations. Geophysical Research Letter. 2013;40:1189–1193. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50249.
  24. Loginov VF, editor. Izmeneniya klimata Belarusi i ikh posledstviya [Climate changes in Belarus and their consequences]. Minsk: Tonpik; 2003. 330 p. Russian.
  25. Loginov VF, Danilovich IS, Kitaev LM, Akent’eva EM. Current and projected hydroclimatic changes in the Baltic and Arctic Sea basins in the territories of Belarus and Russia. Doklady of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus. 2022;66(3):338–347. Russian. DOI: 10.29235/1561-8323-2022-66-3-338-347.
  26. Loginov VF, Lysenko SA, Melnik VI. Izmenenie klimata Belarusi: prichiny, posledstviya, vozmozhnosti regulirovaniya [Climate change in Belarus: causes, consequences, possibilities for regulation]. Minsk: Entsiklopediks; 2020. 264 p. Russian.
  27. Danilovich IS, Piskunovich NG. Precipitation extremes over territory of Belarus under current climate change. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology. 2021;2:32–44. Russian. DOI: 10.33581/2521-6740-2021-2-32-44.
  28. Melnik VI, Buyakov IV, Chernyshev VD. Changes in the amount and type of precipitation in the cold period in the territory of Belarus under conditions of modern climate warming. Nature Management. 2019;2:44–51. Russian.
  29. Sepp M, Post P, Jaagus J. Long-term changes in the frequency of cyclones and their trajectories in Central and Northern Europe. Hydrology Research. 2005;36(4):297–309. DOI: 10.2166/nh.2005.0023.
  30. Partasenok IS, Groisman Pya, Chekan GS, Melnik VI. Winter cyclone frequency and following freshet streamflow formation on the rivers in Belarus. Environmental Research Letters. 2014;9(9):095005. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/9/095005.
  31. Danilovich IS, Loginov VF, Begansky AV. Influence of cyclogenesis in the Atlantic-European sector on the spatial and temporal distribution of atmospheric precipitation in Belarus. Natural Resources. 2023;1:5–11. Russian.
  32. Thompson DW, Wallace JM. Regional climate impacts of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode. Science. 2001;293:85–89. DOI: 10.1126/science.1058958.
  33. Sumak KM, Semenova IG. The cyclonic activity and frequency of dangerous weather phenomena over the territory of Belarus. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology. 2019;2:79–93. Russian. DOI: 10.33581/2521-6740-2019-2-79-93.
Published
2023-12-28
Keywords: heavy precipitation, blizzards, thunderstorms, natural hazards, atmospheric circulation indices (modes), cyclones
How to Cite
Danilovich, I. S., & Berezhkova, K. S. (2023). Relationship between atmospheric circulation and natural hazards over the territory of Belarus during the period of climate change. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology, 2, 49-57. Retrieved from https://journals.bsu.by/index.php/geography/article/view/6068
Issue
No 2 (2023): Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology
Section
Geography

Copyright (c) 2023 Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

The authors who are published in this journal agree to the following:

  1. The authors retain copyright on the work and provide the journal with the right of first publication of the work on condition of license Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial. 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0).
  2. The authors retain the right to enter into certain contractual agreements relating to the non-exclusive distribution of the published version of the work (e.g. post it on the institutional repository, publication in the book), with the reference to its original publication in this journal.
  3. The authors have the right to post their work on the Internet (e.g. on the institutional store or personal website) prior to and during the review process, conducted by the journal, as this may lead to a productive discussion and a large number of references to this work. (See The Effect of Open Access.)