Long-term forecast of mountain and lowland rivers runoff for assessment their hydropower potential (on the example of Ukrainian Carpaty and Belarus)
Abstract
The problems of the effects of climate warming on the formation of the water resources of the Ukrainian Carpaty and the territory of Belarus in the near and distant future. The results of the application of modeling techniques and balances to calculate the forecast river runoff of the Ukrainian Carpaty. For the conditions of Belarus are the results of the forecast river flow in Belarus on the basis of the analysis of atmospheric circulation types. Proven balance method of forecasting water runoff changes and prediction under climate warming in the near and distant future it is recommended to use in the case of Belarus. In the future, you need to update forecasts for more detailed calculations of water resources in both countries. The use of the balance method in the evaluation of water resources has a good prospect for regional hydrological researches.
References
- Sternberg R. Hydropower’s future, the environment, and global electricity systems // Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2010. Vol. 14, issue 2. P. 713–723.
- Zimmermann M. Energy situation and policy in Switzerland // Int. J. Ambient Energy. 2001. Vol. 22, issue 1. P. 29–34.
- Bates B. C., Kundzewicz Z. W., Wu S., et al. (eds.). Climate Change and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, 2008.
- Лопух П. С. Закономерности развития природы водоемов замедленного водообмена, их использование и охрана. Минск, 2000.
- Географический атлас учителя. Минск, 2016.
- Дослідження регіональних особливостей зміни клімату в Україні у ХХІ столітті на основі чисельного моделювання. Заключний звіт. № держ. реєстрації 0111U001571 / С. В. Краківська [та ін.]. 2013.
- Гопченко Є. Д., Лобода Н. С. Оцінювання водних ресурсів України за методом водно-теплового балансу // Наук. праці УкрНДГМІ. 2001. Вип. 249. С. 106−119.
- Мезенцев В. С., Карнацевич И. В. Увлажненность Западно-Сибирской равнины. Л., 1969.
- Лобода Н. С., Гопченко Є. Д. Водні ресурси України у зв’язку з кліматичними умовами // Україна: геогр. і проблеми сталого розвитку. Киïв, 2004. Т. 3. С. 144–146.
- Turc L. Evaluation de bаsoins en eau d’irrigation, ET potentielle // Ann. Agron. 1961. Vol. 12. P. 13–49.
- Turc L. Water Balance of Soils: Relationship between Precipitation. Evapotranspiration and Runoff // Ann. Agron. 1954. Vol. 5. P. 491−595 ; Vol. 6. P. 5−131.
- Kaczmarek Z. Chapter 14: Water Resource Management // Climate Change 1995: IPCC Second Assessment Report. Cambridge ; N. Y., 1996. P. 880.
- Kaczmarek Z., Krasuski D. Sensitivity of Water Balance to Climate Change and Variability // IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, 1991. Р. 7–8.
- Использование водно-балансовой модели Турка и численной региональной модели REMO оценки водных ресурсов местного стока в Украине в ХХІ веке / С. И. Снежко [и др.] // Вестн. Брян. ун-та. 2014. № 4. С. 191–201.
- Kaczmarek Z. Polish Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment // Report to U. S. Countries Studies Program. 1995.
- Лопух П. С., Партасенок И. С. Влияние атмосферной циркуляции на формирование гидрологического режима рек Беларуси. Минск, 2013.
The authors who are published in this journal agree to the following:
- The authors retain copyright on the work and provide the journal with the right of first publication of the work on condition of license Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial. 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0).
- The authors retain the right to enter into certain contractual agreements relating to the non-exclusive distribution of the published version of the work (e.g. post it on the institutional repository, publication in the book), with the reference to its original publication in this journal.
- The authors have the right to post their work on the Internet (e.g. on the institutional store or personal website) prior to and during the review process, conducted by the journal, as this may lead to a productive discussion and a large number of references to this work. (See The Effect of Open Access.)