Regional variability of the mean and extreme characteristics of the present meteorological regime of the eastern part of the Baltic Sea catchment

  • Lev M. Kitaev Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, 29 Staromonetny Lane, 4 building, Moscow 119017, Russia
  • Irina S. Danilovich Institute of Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 10 Frančyska Skaryny Street, Minsk 220076, Belarus
  • Elena M. Akent’eva Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, 7 Karbysheva Street, Saint Petersburg 194021, Russia
  • Grigory A. Tyusov Komarov Botanical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, 2 Professora Popova Street, Saint Petersburg 197376, Russia
  • Ivan V. Buyakov Institute of Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 10 Frančyska Skaryny Street, Minsk 220076, Belarus
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33581/2521-6740-2022-2-16-29

Abstract

The features of the regional heterogeneity of the modern meteorological regime are assessed, as a refinement of existing estimates of large-scale climate changes – for the eastern part of the Baltic Sea catchment on the example of the Leningrad Region and nearby territories of neighbouring subjects of the Russian Federation (northern part of the region), as well as the Zapadnaya Dvina catchment within the Republic of Belarus (southern part of the region). Significant differences in surface air temperature and snow water equivalent (hereinafter referred to as snow storage) were revealed for the winter period, with similar precipitation, more intense interannual and long-term changes in the southern part of the region. The common feature for the region is the presence of a significant correlation of the long-term January – March atmospheric circulation indices variability only with the variability of surface air temperature, as well as minor differences in the number of anomalous years with similar anomaly amplitudes. Surface air temperature has the greatest contribution to the long-term variability of snow storage everywhere, which is most pronounced in the south of the region. The turning points in the long-term variability of surface air temperature coincide in the north and south of the region, the turning points in the course of total precipitation do not coincide. The number of anomalies (exceeding the standard deviation) in the long-term series of characteristics in the northern and southern parts of the region differ little (9–12 cases in the positive and negative ranges of values) in the absence of coincidences and the similarity of the amplitude of the anomalies. The range of values of extreme threshold values (extreme percentiles) of surface air temperature in the north of the region is lower than the range of values in the south, the variability of small percentiles exceeds the variability of large ones; the rate of long-term increase in average temperatures is accompanied by a significant increase in small percentiles in the north and large percentiles in the south of the region. The values of extreme threshold values of precipitation and their standard deviation vary little across the territory; positive trends in maximums and negative trends in minimum thresholds are small, consistent with a slight increase in mean total precipitation. According to the spatial distribution of average values of snow storage, the values of their extremely small and large threshold values in the north of the region are higher than in the south; in the north of the region, the values of percentiles in the interval 1985–2002 stand out as the lowest. 

Author Biographies

Lev M. Kitaev, Institute of Geography, Russian Academy of Sciences, 29 Staromonetny Lane, 4 building, Moscow 119017, Russia

PhD (geography); senior researcher at the laboratory of climatology

Irina S. Danilovich, Institute of Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 10 Frančyska Skaryny Street, Minsk 220076, Belarus

PhD (geography), docent; leading researcher at the laboratory of climate research, Center of Geoecology and Climatology

Elena M. Akent’eva, Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory, 7 Karbysheva Street, Saint Petersburg 194021, Russia

PhD (geography); leading researcher at the laboratory of technical climatology and natural phenomena, department of dynamic meteorology and climatology

Grigory A. Tyusov, Komarov Botanical Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, 2 Professora Popova Street, Saint Petersburg 197376, Russia

PhD (geography); researcher at the laboratory of dynamics of the Arctic vegetation cover

Ivan V. Buyakov, Institute of Nature Management, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 10 Frančyska Skaryny Street, Minsk 220076, Belarus

junior researcher at the laboratory of climate research, Center of Geoecology and Climatology

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Published
2022-12-15
Keywords: meteorological characteristics, atmospheric circulation indices, spatiotemporal variability, long-term distribution of anomalies, regression dependencies, boundary extreme values, percentiles
Supporting Agencies The work by Russian co-authors was carried out within the framework of the project 20-55-00007 of the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (collection and processing of primary information), as well as state assignment FMGE-2019-0009 «Climate change and its consequences for the environment and the life of the population in Russia» of Fundamental Research Program of State Academies of Sciences. The work by Belarusian co-authors was carried out within the framework of the project Kh20R-353 «Modern trends in large-scale atmospheric circulation and their manifestation in the change in the hydrothermal regime of the Arctic and Baltic basins of the East European Plain» of the Belarusian Republican Foundation for Fundamental Research.
How to Cite
Kitaev, L. M., Danilovich, I. S., Akent’eva, E. M., Tyusov, G. A., & Buyakov, I. V. (2022). Regional variability of the mean and extreme characteristics of the present meteorological regime of the eastern part of the Baltic Sea catchment. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology, 2, 16-29. https://doi.org/10.33581/2521-6740-2022-2-16-29
Issue
No 2 (2022): Journal of the Belarusian State University. Geography and Geology
Section
Geography

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