When and where will state-based conflicts occur in the remaining 21st century?
Keywords:
state-based conflicts, wavelet analysis, forecasting, war, peaceAbstract
This study seeks to identify the timing and location of state-based conflicts in the remaining 21st century and to estimate the probability of future state-based conflicts by world regions. The methodology employs a four-step forecasting model utilising wavelet analysis to predict death estimates from state-based conflicts before 2100. These estimates generate forecasts of the probability of state-based conflicts in each world region over the next decades. The findings suggest that before 2100, the probability of state-based conflicts, measured by resulting fatalities as a proxy, is estimated at 54 % in Asia and Oceania (excluding the Middle East), 31 % in Africa, 8 % in Europe, 6 % in the Americas, and 0 % in the Middle East.
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