When and where will state-based conflicts occur in the remaining 21st century?

  • Pierre Rostan American University of Iraq, Airport Road, Baghdad 10071, Iraq
  • Alexandra Rostan American University of Iraq, Airport Road, Baghdad 10071, Iraq

Abstract

This study seeks to identify the timing and location of state-based conflicts in the remaining 21st century and to estimate the probability of future state-based conflicts by world regions. The methodology employs a four-step forecasting model utilising wavelet analysis to predict death estimates from state-based conflicts before 2100. These estimates generate forecasts of the probability of state-based conflicts in each world region over the next decades. The findings suggest that before 2100, the probability of state-based conflicts, measured by resulting fatalities as a proxy, is estimated at 54 % in Asia and Oceania (excluding the Middle East), 31 % in Africa, 8 % in Europe, 6 % in the Americas, and 0 % in the Middle East.

Author Biographies

Pierre Rostan, American University of Iraq, Airport Road, Baghdad 10071, Iraq

PhD (administration); associate professor at the College of business

Alexandra Rostan, American University of Iraq, Airport Road, Baghdad 10071, Iraq

researcher at the College of business

References

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Published
2024-12-03
Keywords: state-based conflicts, wavelet analysis, forecasting, war, peace
Supporting Agencies The authors declare no external funding.
How to Cite
Rostan, P., & Rostan, A. (2024). When and where will state-based conflicts occur in the remaining 21st century?. Journal of the Belarusian State University. International Relations, 2, 40-46. Retrieved from https://journals.bsu.by/index.php/internationalRelations/article/view/6671
Issue
No 2 (2024): Journal of the Belarusian State University. International Relations
Section
International relations

Copyright (c) 2024 Journal of the Belarusian State University. International Relations

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