Statistical forecasting of the dynamics of epidemiological indicators for COVID-19 incidence in the Republic of Belarus

  • Yuriy S. Kharin Research Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4226-2546
  • Valery A. Valoshka Research Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus
  • Oksana V. Dernakova Research Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus
  • Vladimir I. Malugin Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus
  • Alexey Yu. Kharin Research Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus
DOI: https://doi.org/10.33581/2520-6508-2020-3-36-50

Abstract

The paper is devoted to the urgent problem of statistical forecasting for the dynamics of the main epidemiological indicators for the COVID-19 pandemic in the Republic of Belarus based on the observed time series. To solve this problem, five methods are proposed: forecasting method based on «moving trends»; local-median forecasting method; forecasting method based on discrete time series; forecasting method based on the vector econometric error correction model; method of sequential statistical analysis. Algorithms for computation of point and interval forecasts for the main epidemiological indicators have been developed. The numerical results of computer forecasting are presented on the example of the Republic of Belarus.

Author Biographies

Yuriy S. Kharin, Research Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

corresponding member of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, doctor of science (physics andmathematics), full professor; director, Research Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University, and professor at the department of mathematical modeling and data analysis, faculty of applied mathematics and computer science, Belarusian State University 

Valery A. Valoshka, Research Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

PhD (physics and mathematics); senior researcher at the laboratory of mathematical methods of information security, Research Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University, and associate professor at the department of mathematical modeling and data analysis, faculty of applied mathematics and computer science, Belarusian State University.

Oksana V. Dernakova, Research Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

junior researcher at the sector of computer data analysis, laboratory of applied informatics

Vladimir I. Malugin, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

PhD (physics and mathematics); associate professor at the department of mathematical modeling and data analysis, faculty of applied mathematics and computer science

Alexey Yu. Kharin, Research Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus; Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliežnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

doctor of science (physics and mathematics), docent; head of the department of probability theory and mathematical statistics, faculty of applied mathematics and computer science, Belarusian State University, and chief researcher at the laboratory of statistical analysis and modeling, Research Institute for Applied Problems of Mathematics and Informatics, Belarusian State University

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Published
2020-12-08
Keywords: forecasting, probability model, time series, point forecast, interval forecast, COVID-19
Supporting Agencies This research is supported by the Ministry of Education of the Republic of Belarus. The authors are grateful to S. N. Staleuskaya, PhD (physics and mathematics), for development of the computer program for numeric results in section «Forecasting method based on “moving trends”» of this paper.
How to Cite
Kharin, Y. S., Valoshka, V. A., Dernakova, O. V., Malugin, V. I., & Kharin, A. Y. (2020). Statistical forecasting of the dynamics of epidemiological indicators for COVID-19 incidence in the Republic of Belarus. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Mathematics and Informatics, 3, 36-50. https://doi.org/10.33581/2520-6508-2020-3-36-50
Issue
No 3 (2020): Journal of the Belarusian State University. Mathematics and Informatics
Section
Probability Theory and Mathematical Statistics

Copyright (c) 2020 Journal of the Belarusian State University. Mathematics and Informatics

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