Analysis of the development of COVID-19 epidemic in different countries using the fractional differential model of infection spread

  • Taisia A. Efimova B. I. Stepanov Institute of Physics, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 68 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220072, Belarus
  • Igor A. Timoshchenko Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus
  • Maryna A. Hliatsevich Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

Abstract

The evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in 100 countries of the world was analysed using the infection spread model based on the use of fractional calculus. It was shown that the developed model allows one to adequately reproduce the dynamics of the number of deaths and the number of new cases of infection in all studied states. It has been established that, according to the main characteristics of the epidemic spread, the countries under consideration can be distributed into three clusters, each of which is characterised by its socio-demographic composition of the population and the level of economic development. Identification of such clusters in the future can lead to a more optimal and rapid search for model parameters that will be used to reproduction and predict the development of infections similar in distribution pattern to the COVID-19 infection. To describe the second and subsequent waves of the epidemic, a modification of the model has been proposed. This modification includes an additional equation that accounts the presence of individuals infected with the virus, but who are not conatgious. It was shown that with each subsequent wave of the epidemic, the order of the fractional derivative, which makes it possible to achieve the best fit to statistical data, tends to unity. It can be hypothesized that this fact is a reflection of the increasing number of new strains of the virus circulating in the population.

Author Biographies

Taisia A. Efimova, B. I. Stepanov Institute of Physics, National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, 68 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220072, Belarus

junior researcher at the Centre «Nanophotonics»

Igor A. Timoshchenko, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

senior lecturer at the department of computer modelling, faculty of physics

Maryna A. Hliatsevich, Belarusian State University, 4 Niezaliezhnasci Avenue, Minsk 220030, Belarus

PhD (physics and mathematics); associate professor at the department of higher mathematics and mathematical physics, faculty of physics

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Published
2024-05-15
Keywords: COVID-19, fractional derivatives, incubation period, clustering
Supporting Agencies This work was carried out with the financial support of the Belarusian Republican Foundation for Fundamental Research (grant No. F22M-024).
How to Cite
Efimova, T. A., Timoshchenko, I. A., & Hliatsevich, M. A. (2024). Analysis of the development of COVID-19 epidemic in different countries using the fractional differential model of infection spread. Journal of the Belarusian State University. Physics, 2, 38-49. Retrieved from https://journals.bsu.by/index.php/physics/article/view/6295
Issue
No 2 (2024): Journal of the Belarusian State University. Physics
Section
Biophysics

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