Multiple regression modelling: contemporary spatial planning and economic modelling of tourism industry (case study of Shaki district)
Abstract
The study conducted a thorough analysis of the territorial planning of the tourism industry and a multiple regression analysis of tourism revenues in the Shaki district from 2010 to 2021. The main objective of the research was to identify the factors influencing the formation of income in the tourism industry in the context of regionalisation and the current direction of tourism development. Studying the negative and positive aspects of the tourism industry and the planning sequence, as well as the existing theoretical approaches to tourism planning, was necessary to achieve this goal. Comparative analysis, regression analysis, and correlation analysis methods were used to analyse the factors affecting tourism, and the final version of the mathematical statistical model was obtained based on successive models by establishing hypotheses. The study found that the number of hotel rooms and foreign tourists is the main influential factor in the formation of income. The proposed model had following parameters: p < 0.005 and R2 = 0.4886, making it the final option. The research highlights the importance of deep learning about current and future situations of any research destination and tourism planning issues, such as the effective use of resources and the prediction of incomes. It demonstrates that the reduction in tourism income is primarily due to the decrease in foreign tourists’ interest caused by rising hotel and food costs. The research also reveals that the focus has shifted to other neighbouring districts, such as Gabala and Gakh, with tourist flows directed away from the Shaki district. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the factors affecting tourism revenue in the Shaki district, which can inform future policy and decision-making in the tourism industry. As a result of these findings, stakeholders will be able to identify the key drivers of tourism growth and take the necessary measures to attract more tourists and increase revenue from tourism.
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